Monday, March 9, 2009

Your Weekly Capitol Hill/Wall Street Events Cheat Sheet

We are trying something new this week with our events calendar and publishing at the start of the week instead of the preceding week's end. Let us know what you think, as we continue to play with the website (and that's a hint as we are working on a redesign/launch).

Last week we were correct to say that the focus would be on the budget with Federal Reserve Chmn. Ben Bernanke, Treasury Secy. Timothy Geithner and the director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), Peter Orszag, making multiple trips to Capitol Hill. The sheer volume of coverage was impressive. What we were surprised by was Treasury's announcement of more details in the housing plan without a strategic leak to the press. Normally you see leaks in the paper to set up the information presented at the hearing, but not this time. That is a shame because it would have given journos time to detail the story further. And, it is definitely a story needing the focus on the detail and nuance and less on the heat and politics. Conversely, one of the Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP) hearings this week has already leaked (today) to the Washington Post (click here for the story) parts of their report to be examined this week.

This week feels similar to last - appearances by Secy. Geithner and OMB Dir. Orszag on Capitol Hill to talk budget and, of course, the Troubled Asset Relief Program "TARP" (all detailed below). President Obama and Vice President get into the act this week with a financial recovery conference on Thursday - we expect more details to come out in the next day or so. What will be interesting to see is if the conference is a photo-op oriented or policy detail oriented. These will be the events that will drive DC financial coverage.

We'll definitely be watching, you should too. We do caution that you check back to WhyYouCare.com for updates on scheduling.

Here's why you care about next week's trends in earnings and reports:
Reports: Mortgages Applications (3/11), Retails Sales and Unemployment (3/12).

Such a big week that you could almost miss it?: There are two hearings this week that will likely end up inside the business pages but shouldn't. They should be general consumption. The first is an examination of the Securities and Exchange Commission, with SEC Chrwmn. Mary Shapiro testifying (3/11). The second is a hearing on Thursday (3/12) looking at "mark-to-market" accounting. Both are exactly that type of thing that sounds boring to the non-MBA set, and is exactly the type of thing the MBA set is focusing on instead of the photo-ops. How businesses run their books and how the SEC polices actions ultimately impact all of us (see daily headlines). But, when the nitty gritty gets examined the good journalistic reporting often gets ignored.

MONDAY 3/9
Hearing: Senate Finance Cmte's U.S. Trade Representative confirmation hearing for Roland Kirk.



TUESDAY 3/10
Earnings: Dick's Sporting Goods, J.Crew, Kroger, Patriot Capital Funding.

Hearings:

House Appropriations Cmte's Financial Services and General Government Subcmte. on the Treasury and the financial crisis. Witnesses: Secy. Geithner and Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP) Inspector General Neil Barofsky.

Senate Budget Cmte. on the proposed 2010 budget. Witness: Office of Management and Budget Dir. Peter R. Orszag. [EDITOR'S NOTE: RESCHEDULED FROM LAST WEEK.]

Senate Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs Cmte. on protecting investors and regulating securities markets.

Senate Health, Education, Labor and Pensions Cmte. on "Rebuilding Economic Security: Empowering Workers to Restore the Middle Class."



WEDNESDAY 3/11
Earnings: American Eagle, Diamond Foods, National Semi, Newcastle Investment, Quicksilver, Staples, Vail Resorts.

Economic Reports: Mortgage Bankers Association releases weekly data on mortgage applications.

Hearings:

House Financial Services Cmte. on " Views and Estimates Report" to the House Budget Cmte. and mark up pending legislation: Special Inspector General for the Troubled Asset Relief Program Act of 2009.

House Oversight and Govt. Reform Cmte's Domestic Policy Subcmte on "TARP Oversight: Assessing Treasury's Efforts to Prevent Waste and Abuse of Taxpayer Funds." Selected Witnesses: Neel Kashkari, Bush administration's interim Asst. Treasury Secy (you'll recall present at the birth of TARP) and Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP) Inspector General Neil Barofsky.

House Armed Services Cmte. the security and the global financial crisis.

House Appropriations Cmte's Financial Services and General Govt. Subcmte. on the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the financial crisis. Witness: SEC Chrwmn. Mary Shapiro.

Joint Economic Cmte. on TARP: Accountability, oversight and transparency.

House Budget Cmte. on the proposed 2010 budget.

House Financial Services Cmte's Financial Institutions and Consumer Credit Subcmte. on "Mortgage Lending Reform: A Comprehensive View of the American Mortgage System."

House Judiciary Subcmte's Commercial and Administrative Law Subcmte. on "Circuit City Unplugged: Why Did Chapter 11 Fail to Save 34,000 Jobs?" [EDITOR'S NOTE: RESCHEDULED FROM LAST WEEK.]



THURSDAY 3/12
Earnings: Anthracite Capital, Interstate Hotels, MGM Mirage, NGP Capital Resources, ZipRealty.

Economic Report: Business Inventories (for Jan.), Initial Unemployment Claims for (3/7), Retails Sales (for Feb.).

Conference: Pres. Obama and V.P. Biden on "White House Recovery and Reinvestment Act Implementation Conference to ensure that dollars invested and spent as part of the Recovery Act are effective, transparent and efficient."

Hearings:

Senate Budget Cmte. on the proposed 2010 budget. Witness: Treasury Secy. Geithner.

House Financial Services Cmte's Capital Markets, Insurance and Govt. Sponsored Enterprises Subcmte.on mark-to-market accounting rules.

House Small Business Cmte's Contracting and Technology Panel on "Ensuring Stimulus Contracts for Small and Veteran-owned Businesses."



FRIDAY 3/13
Earnings: Compass Group

Economic Reports: Export and Import Prices (for Feb.)





Sunday, March 1, 2009

Next Week's News Today (Budget Hearing Bonanza Edition)

It's time for Next Week's News Today where we publish our weekly calendar of earnings, reports, hearings and political events which will either drive the news, or deserve more attention. Last week we were correct to say that the bank stress tests and congressional testimony from Fed. Chmn. Ben Bernanke and the President's Economic Advisory Board Chmn. Paul Volcker would drive the market and the news (in addition to the obvious conclusion that the week would be filled with analysis of President Obama address to Congress).

This coming week will be all about the budget with Chmn. Bernanke, Treasury Secy. Geithner and the director of the Office of Management and Budget making multiple trips to Capitol Hill. As of now there are seven congressional hearings this coming week devoted to the budget. Additionally, you'll see a TARP hearing and an accountability hearing on stimulus spending noted below. All of which should generate excellent coverage.

We'll definitely be watching, you should too. We do caution that you check back to WhyYouCare.com for updates on scheduling.

Here's why you care about next week's trends in earnings and reports:

MONDAY 3/2
Earnings: Allied Capital, American Capital, Ares Capital, BPZ Energy, DISH Network, Edison, Fannie Mae, Franklin Electric, First Industrial Realty, Kenneth Cole, Pepco Holdings, Sun Healthcare, TiVo, Tower Group.

Economic Reports: Construction spending (for Jan.); Federal Reserve releases weekly interest rates information; Personal income and outlays (for Jan.).

Speech: NPR CEO Vivian Schiller, National Press Club on "What Public Broadcasting can learn from commercial media... and vice versa."


TUESDAY 3/3
Earnings: America's Car-Mart, AutoZone, Jackson Hewitt, MBIA Inc., Patriot Capital Funding, Reliant Energy, URS, Verifone, Virgin Mobile USA.

Economic Report: Car/truck sales (for Feb.); Pending home sales (for Jan.).

Hearings:
House Ways and Means Cmte. on the proposed 2010 budget. Witness: Treas. Secy. Timothy Geithner.

Senate Budget Cmte. on budget challenges. Witness: Federal Reserve Board Chmn. Ben Bernanke.

House Budget Cmte. on the proposed 2010 budget. Witness: Office of Management and Budget (OMB) Dir. Peter R. Orszag.

Senate Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs Cmte. on consumer protections in financial services.

House Judiciary Subcmte's Commercial and Administrative Law Subcmte. on "Circuit City Unplugged: Why Did Chapter 11 Fail to Save 34,000 Jobs?" [EDITOR'S NOTE, AS OF 3/2 THIS IS POSTONED.]


WEDNESDAY 3/4
Earnings: ABM Industries, Allis-Chalmers Energy, BJ's Wholesale, Costco, Cox Radio, Cross Country, Dynamex, Foot Locker, Monaco Coach, PETsMART, U.S. Concrete, Weight Watchers.

Economic Reports: Federal Reserve releases the "Beige Book" (economic conditions report); Weekly mortgage applications report.

Hearings:
Senate Finance Cmte. on the proposed 2010 budget. Witness: Treas. Secy. Timothy Geithner.

Senate Budget Cmte. on budget challenges. Witness: Office of Management and Budget (OMB) Dir. Peter Orszag (9:30a ET).

House Ways and Means Cmte. on the proposed 2010 budget. Witness: Office of Management and Budget (OMB) Dir. Peter Orszag (2p ET).

House Financial Services Cmte's Financial Institutions and Consumer Credit Subcmte. on "TARP [Troubled Asset Relief Program] Oversight: Is TARP Working for Main Street?"
Senate Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Cmte. on "Where Were the Watchdogs? Systemic Risk and the Breakdown of Financial Governance."

Senate Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Cmte's Permanent Investigations Subcmte. on "Tax Haven Banks and U.S. Tax Compliance - Obtaining the Names of U.S. Clients With Swiss Accounts."


THURSDAY 3/5
Earnings: Alliant Energy, Bankrate, bebe stores, Belden, Belo, Brookfield Properties, Bunge, Burger King, CIGNA, Cincinnati Bell, Cincinnati Financial Corp, Diamond Management, Diamond Offshore, Duke Energy, Earthlink, Echelon, Elizabeth Arden, Estee Lauder, Evercore, Hartford Financial, Imperial Sugar, Infinity Property & Casualty, Kellog, Kimco Realty, Knoll, M/I Homes, Mastercard, McClatchy, Moody's, Prestige Brands, Sonoco Products, Tenneco, Timberland, Warner Music Group, Western Union.

Economic Report: Initial unemployment claims (for 2/28).

Hearings:
House Budget Cmte. on the Treasury Dept.'s 2010 budget. Witness: Treas. Secy. Timothy Geithner.

Senate Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Cmte. on stimulus spending accountability. Witnesses: Office of Management and Budget (OMB) Dir. Peter Orszag. and Govt. Accountability Office Acting Dir. Eugene Dodaro.

House Financial Services Cmte's Capital Markets, Insurance and Government Sponsored Enterprises Subcmte. on monitoring risk in the financial services industry.

Senate Finance Cmte's U.S. Trade Representative confirmation hearing for Roland Kirk. [EDITOR'S NOTE, AS OF 3/2 THIS IS POSTPONED TO MONDAY 3/9.]


FRIDAY 3/6
Earnings: H & R Block.

Economic Reports: Bank assets and liabilities (Federal Reserve weekly data); Consumer credit (measuring debt for Jan.); Hourly earnings (for Feb.); Unemployment rate (for Feb.)



Friday, February 27, 2009

Is Your Mortgage Deduction Federal Budget Roadkill?

President Obama's budget is understandably getting all the news attention. But, our mission is to focus on what's inside the paper, not on the front page. That's why we say, go read the lead story on the budget. THEN read these two pieces.

1) Your Mortgage Deduction May Get Dialed Back.

Here's why you care: The Wall Street Journal's Nick Timiraos has an important nugget from the President's proposed budget: Top earners could see their mortgage deduction dialed back should the budget pass. Ah, but who are top earners? As we like to say in the legal profession, that's a defined term. Which, of course, is another way of saying it can mean whatever the author wants it to mean. Read Timiraos' piece and decide for yourself.


2) The Fund that Insures Your Bank Account? It Needs Money.

Here's why you care: As most people know the FDIC insures your bank account, which is to say if the bank implodes, you still get your money. When the bottom fell out of the market the insurance amount was raised from $100,000 to $250,000. But, there's a problem: The fund that insures the accounts is based on payments from banks. And, because more banks have gone under, or are in trouble, the fund's size is dramatically smaller. What to do? The Washington Post's Binyamin Appelbaum explains the plan.


Is Your Mortgage Deduction Federal Budget Roadkill?

President Obama's budget is understandably getting all the news attention. But, our mission is to focus on what's inside the paper, not on the front page. That's why we say, go read the lead story on the budget. THEN read these two pieces.

1) Your Mortgage Deduction May Get Dialed Back.

Here's why you care: The Wall Street Journal's Nick Timiraos has an important nugget from the President's proposed budget: Top earners could see their mortgage deduction dialed back should the budget pass. Ah, but who are top earners? As we like to say in the legal profession, that's a defined term. Which, of course, is another way of saying it can mean whatever the author wants it to mean. Read Timiraos' piece and decide for yourself.


2) The Fund that Insures Your Bank Account? It Needs Money.

Here's why you care: As most people know the FDIC insures your bank account, which is to say if the bank implodes, you still get your money. When the bottom fell out of the market the insurance amount was raised from $100,000 to $250,000. But, there's a problem: The fund that insures the accounts is based on payments from banks. And, because more banks have gone under, or are in trouble, the fund's size is dramatically smaller. What to do? The Washington Post's Binyamin Appelbaum explains the plan.


Thursday, February 26, 2009

Congress Takes on Modifying Mortgages in Bankruptcy

We've been highlighting the issue for a while (most recently in our Tuesday posting) that Congress would like to have bankruptcy judges be able to modify mortgages in court.

Here's why you care: On the one hand it would give an avenue for those underwater to make their case and move on. On the the hand, it is going to cost those that lend and/or hold those mortgages a bundle of money - which will be passed on to you the next time you borrow. None the less, the House is taking it up, and the Senate is next. We figure you've seen all the front page headlines on the President Obama's budget so we thought we'd highlight the mortgage story instead since you may have missed it. The Los Angeles Times' Jim Puzzanghera has a well written story laying out all sides, and the costs (and potential costs). Give it a read and you'll be ahead of the curve.


Wednesday, February 25, 2009

Envelope Pushing Obama Web Coverage & Two Stories You Shouldn't Miss in the Business Pages

WhyYouCare is breaking from our norm of highlighting one article today because of the deluge of post presidential address coverage. If for some unforeseen reason you missed President Obama's address to Congress you are saved by the internet. Just about every news organization has posted a transcript (like CNN has here). However, we are particularly impressed with the web producing by both the Wall Street Journal and the New York Times for different reasons.

The New York Times has posted the entire video of President Obama's address (like many news outlets) online. However, the New York Times has one-upped the others by providing written analysis that corresponds to the President's address. In other words, as the video plays and you listen the President, written reporters' analysis automatically scrolls by for that particular moment in the speech. Nothing short of terrific producing. Which bring us to the Wall Street Journal which picked certain topics in the speech and compared those words to prior Presidents'. You just need to click on economy and compare President Obama to Presidents Kennedy and Reagan. Also, nothing short of terrific. So, if you missed it, or want more, you got it.

But our mission statement is finding the buried stories that put you ahead of the curve, and today there are two.

Here's why you care: The first is Wall Street Journal's Nick Timiraos who has written a piece on crunching the numbers on the age old dilemma of buying vs. renting. You care if you already own because as prices drop buying becomes more attractive, thus eventually driving prices back up again. Read this story, he's ahead of the curve.

Here's why you care: Another reporter ahead of the curve is the New York Times' David Leonhardt who today outlines in his Economic Scene column that the cost of a strong military and programs like Medicare mean one thing in the coming years: Higher taxes. His reporting is based on comments made by Republicans and Democrats at the White House's fiscal responsibility summit which we noted on our events calendar. His column is thoughtful and forward looking, and thus you should give him a couple minutes of your time. He'll put you ahead of the curve.



Tuesday, February 24, 2009

Modifying Mortgages in Bankruptcy and a Crib Sheet for Tonight's Congressional Address

As we pointed out in our events calendar for the week, Next Week's News Today - there are two key hearings on Capitol Hill today. One examining TARP, and the other loan modifications. Those hearings provide the context for President Obama's address to Congress tonight (9p ET).

Here's why you care: The first hearing examines TARP and will undoubtedly address the issue of banks needing more cash, and how the administration plans to measure both the need and effectiveness of further cash injections into financial institutions (remember as we noted yesterday the "stress tests" for banks start tomorrow). But the second hearing caught our eye because we think it might get over looked. What may or may not come up in the hearing regarding loan modifications is a bill in the House that would allow bankruptcy judges to modify loans. CNN is running a good Reuter's wire story explaining what's in the bill which may get voted on by Thursday. The story does a good job of outlining the stakes and why you care. Meanwhile, given that all of this is happening as the President prepares to address Congress, we thought it worth a mention that the Washington Post staff put together something of a crib sheet or racing form breaking down all the areas of the economy that President Obama is likely to hit tonight. It is a great graphic to use alongside tonight's speech.