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Our Weekly Wall Street/Capitol Hill Crib Sheet: Playing the Expectation Game [Updated 4/24]

Last week we were, of course, dead on to spotlight earnings, Pres. Obama's economic speech, and Federal Reserve Board Chmn. Bernanke's two speeches as the news drivers of the week.

This week earnings were already the week's focus by the time the Sunday papers hit your doorstep and/or your laptop screen. But as always there's much more out there. In particular, Treasury Secy. Geithner is appearing before the Congressional Oversight Panel to take TARP questions come Tuesday (4/21), and we count seven Capitol Hill hearings this week touching on different aspects of the economy. AND, come Friday (4/24) we expect to see the methodology released for those bank stress tests (for TARP recipients) if media reports are right.

For our MBA readers and MBA wannabes why you care: We humbly suggest that this week, more so than others, is about playing the expectation game. As we go to print the market is down, and there are many earnings still to come through out the week. Does the pessimism end up in a rally? Maybe yes, maybe no. We think the week as a snapshot is less important than getting through to Friday and the coverage of the stress test methodology. If deemed to be fair, and the banks end up coming out better than expected on May 4 - than that will be telling. So watch for lots of coverage on each earning, and dissection of whether the expectation game was won or lost. But, don't get too sucked in. Keep your focus on the journalism around the stress test methodology.

Here's your weekly crib sheet of events that will garner press coverage... We do caution that you check back to WhyYouCare.com for updates on scheduling.

MONDAY 4/20
Earnings: Bank of America, Bank of Hawaii, BancorpSouth, Eli Lilly, Halliburton, Hasbro, IBM, Pinnacle Financial, Texas Instruments, Zions Bancorp.

Economic Reports: Federal Reserve's weekly interest rate data; Leading indicators (for March).

Pres. Obama: Speaks to CIA employees "about the importance of CIA's mission to our national security." Press coverage allowed.

Senate: Reconvenes and considers Fraud Enforcement and Recovery Act (FERA) of 2009 (S.386).

Bernanke: Speaks at the Financial Literacy and Education Summit on "Global Best Practices in Financial Education."

Discussion: Brookings Institution - on "Wall Street's role in triggering the economic crisis and the role Wall Street leaders may play in leading us out."

Conference: Financial Services Cmte. Chmn. Rep. Barney Frank speaks at the National Low Income Housing Coalition policy conference.


TUESDAY 4/21
Earnings: Advanced Micro Devices, Bank of New York , BlackRock, Capitol One, Caterpillar, Coach, Coca-Cola, Colonial BancGroup, Comerica, DuPont, Huntington Banc, IberiaBank, KeyCorp, Lockheed Martin, M&T Bank, Manpower, Merck, New York Times, Norfolk Southern, Northern Trust, SanDisk, Schering-Plough, Seagate Tech, State Street, TD Ameritrade, United Health, US Bancorp, Webster Financial, Yahoo!

Pres. Obama: Meets with King Abdullah II of Jordan at the White House.

Treasury Secy. Geithner: Appears before the Congressional Oversight Panel to discuss TARP.

House: Reconvenes from recess.

Nomination: Senate Finance Cmte. votes on HHS Secy. nominee Kathleen Sebelius.

Hearing: House Oversight and Govt. Reform Cmte. holds field hearings on stimulus spending.

Hearing: Joint Economic Cmte's hearing on criteria used to determine if institutions pose systemic risk to the financial system.

Hearing: [POSTPONED] House Oversight and Government Reform Cmte's Domestic Policy Subcmte. holds hearing on "Debating Treasury's Plan for Toxic Assets."

Hearing: House Judiciary Cmte's Courts and Competition Policy Subcmte. holds hearing on "A New Age for Newspapers: Diversity of Voices, Competition and the Internet."

Conference: HUD Secy. Shaun Donovan. speaks at the National Low Income Housing Coalition policy conference.


WEDNESDAY 4/22
Earnings: Altria, Apple, AT&T, Boeing, Continental Air, eBay, Equifax, Kimberly-Clark, Knight Capital Group, McDonald's, Morgan Stanley, Northrop Grumman, Pepsi Bottling, Provident Financial, Qualcomm, WellPoint, Wells Fargo.

Economic Reports: Federal Housing Finance Agency releases monthly house price index estimates; Mortgage Bankers Assoc. releases weekly data on mortgage applications.

Treasury Secy. Geithner: Speaks at the Economic Club of Washington's breakfast.

National Press Club: Agriculture Secy. Thomas Vilsack speaks on Earth Day.


THURSDAY 4/23
Earnings: Alaska Air, Amazon.com, American Express, American Financial, Amgen, CIT Group, ConocoPhillips, Fifth Third, Ford Motor, Franklin Electric, Genworth Financial, Goodrich, Hershey Foods, Invesco, Janus Capital, Marriott, Microsoft, Novartis, PepsiCo, Phillip Morris International, PNC Bank, Raytheon, Regal Entertainment, Royal Caribbean, SunTrust Banks, Union Pacific, UPS, US Airways.

Economic Reports: Existing home sales (for March), Initial unemployment claims (for 4/18).

Pres. Obama: Washington Post reports that Pres. Obama will meet with 14 banks' credit card division heads regarding customers/practices.

Hearing: Joint Economic Cmte. holds hearing on TARP Inspector General Neil Barofsky's quarterly report. Mr. Barofsky is the witness.

Hearing: House Financial Services Cmte. holds hearing on mortgage regulations/lending practices.

Hearing: Senate Homeland Security and Govt. Cmte. holds a hearing on "Follow the Money: State and Local Oversight of Stimulus Funding."


FRIDAY 4/24
Earnings: 3M, Honeywell, MB Financial, T. Rowe Price, Wilmington Trust, Xerox.

Economic Report: Durable orders (for March), New home sales (for March).

Stress Tests: According to media reports the methodology for those much talked about TARP recipient stress tests is released this day. Results expected on May 4, 2009.

Treasury Secy. Geithner: Hosts G-7 Finance Ministers meeting in Washington, DC. 4:30p ET presser announced per Treasury Dept. [Note: The G-7 are the U.S., U.K, Canada, France, Germany, Italy and Japan.]

Our Weekly Wall Street/Capitol Hill Crib Sheet is Back

After a brief end of fiscal year hiatus we are back. And just in time, because you saw the headlines over the weekend discussing what a big earnings week it will be, so it comes as no shock that Goldman Sachs reported today (one day early). But what will be the other drivers? What if we told you that the Federal Reserve twice yearly report on the economy is due this week? And what if we told you that Pres. Obama will give an economic speech on Tuesday (4/14)? Oh, and what if we told that Federal Reserve Board Chairman Ben Bernanke has not one, but two speeches this week? We think those will be worth keeping an eye on.

For our MBA readers why you care: We suspect you'll see three themes in the press this week - 1) taxes (obvious); 2) earnings (also obvious); and 3) stories about how the economic downturn is hurting countries south of the U.S. border. That's because the Summit of the Americas is at the end of the week with Pres. Obama in attendance but not without making a pit stop in Mexico along the way. Lost in all of this is the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) discussion on credit rating agency oversight (4/15). We think your eyes and ears should be tuned into that as much as the other stories.

For our MBA wannabes why you care: Earnings are important (otherwise we wouldn't included notes on them each week), but remember earnings are how a company did the prior quarter, not necessary an iron clad indicator on how it will do the following quarter or in a year.

Here's your weekly crib sheet... We do caution that you check back to WhyYouCare.com for updates on scheduling.

MONDAY 4/13
Earnings: Goldman Sachs* (*One day early).



TUESDAY 4/14
Earnings: Commerce Bancshares, CSX Corp, Intel, Johnson & Johnson.

Economic Reports: Producer Price Index (for March), Retails Sales (for March).

Pres. Obama: 11:30a, Economic speech at Georgetown University.

Bernanke: 1:30p ET speech on the financial crisis at Morehouse College, Atlanta, GA.

Briefing: Citizens Against Government Waste on their Congressional Pig Book (report on federal pork-barrel spending).

Briefing: Transportation Secy. Ray LaHood the stimulus law and transportation funding.

Hearing: Senate Small Business and Entrepreneurship Cmte.'s field hearing on manufacturing plant closures.



WEDNESDAY 4/15 - TAX DAY
Earnings: Abbott Labs, Charles Schwab, Knight Capital Group, Piper Jaffray, Progressive.

Economic Reports: Consumer Price Index (for March), Fed's Beige Book (the Fed's report on the economy), Mortgage Applications data (from Mortgage Bankers Assoc.).

Discussion: Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) on the oversight of credit rating agencies.



THURSDAY 4/16
Earnings: Associated Banc Corp., BlackRock, Gannett, Genuine Parts, Google, Harley-Davidson, JP Morgan Chase, Nokia.

Economic Reports: Initial Claims (for 4/11), Housing Starts, Building Permits.

National Press Club: Dominique Strauss-Kahn, Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund discusses the recession.

Pres. Obama: Stops in Mexico on his way to the Summit of the Americas.



FRIDAY 4/17
Earnings: BB&T Corp., Citigroup, First Horizon, General Electric, Mattel, Prosperity Bancshares.

Economic Report: Federal Reserve System's data on the assets and liabilities of U.S. commercial banks.

Pres. Obama: Participates in the Summit of the Americas in Trinidad and Tobago.

Bernanke: 12:30p ET speech on "Challenges Presented by Innovations in Financial Services for the Underserved."