Thursday, August 7, 2008

Next Week's News Today

Truth be known, Why You Care wanted to make Next Week's News Today a regular Wednesday feature and post this yesterday. But, when we saw the article yesterday about the bank in San Diego buying up properties, we felt compelled to post that along Fairfax County, Virginia making a similar move. It was just too interesting and informative.

So, we were not really that surprised when we woke up this morning to find both the Wall Street Journal and New York Times running stories about retail sales.

Here's why you care: Business like politics is often a game of expectations. Retailers are interested in setting the tone regarding their July sales BECAUSE NEXT WEEK many of them are due to report earnings.

Here's why you care again: Those earnings are often times looked at by Wall Street as not static figures but rather subjective ones. For instance, if you establish you are going to post a loss, but post less of a loss than was expected - BINGO you're a winner. The thing about retailers that impacts you personally is that if they don't do well that means part time jobs start to dry up. That means less spending power. And if they really don't do well, that means malls start losing their stores. A few small ones, not the end of the world (except for that small business owner). But, you lose an anchor store (i.e. the goliath store at the mall that all the other ones center around) then the rest of the stores may fall like dominos.

Bad for you pocket book, bad for anyone you know that needs a part time job, bad for you community. We think you care.

And if you are a land owner near by, really bad for you property value.

So, next week expect lots of stories that fall into the framework laid out above because take a look at who is reporting earnings next week that relate to retail:

Macy's (Wednesday 8/13/08)
Wal-Mart (Thursday 8/14/08)
Estee Lauder (Thursday 8/14/08)
JC Penny (Thursday 8/14/08)
Kohl's (Thursday 8/14/08)
Nordstrom (Thursday 8/14/08)
Abercrombie (Friday 8/15/08)

You're Next Week's News Today bonus: Consumer Price Index (CPI) numbers should be out on Thursday, August 14. What's CPI? CPI, although criticized by some economists and market watchers, is used to more or less gage inflation. That's because it is supposed to measure the average price of goods you as the consumer are out purchasing. When tracked over time, some point to it as inflation thermometer - but again, talk to three economists on this, and they'll are likely get wound up. You'll also see stories about inflation next week because 1) the Federal Reserve is concerned about it; and 2) the CPI numbers are out on Thursday.