Wednesday, March 18, 2009

Canary in the Coal Mine Business Story You Shouldn't Miss

While the lead story today will continue to be on executive bonuses, we think the story you shouldn't miss is on the financial recovery process itself.

For our MBA-Wannabes here's why you care: The LA Times' Roger Vincent has a terrific story examining the commercial real estate market in Los Angeles. Sectors like commercial real estate are something of a canary in coal mine for measuring the health of the economy as transactions rely on lending, credit, functioning banks, and so forth. Vincent's story matters to you because he deftly shows how the economy has left buyers and sellers without a way to really tell the value of a property which only further paralyzes the market. He also shows how this ultimately makes it a good time be a business in search of a lease. Take a moment and read Vincent's piece and consider what other cities are going through similar scenarios - New York, Miami, etc.

For our MBAs here's why you care: We note that the one commercial market that is not in LA style dire straights is actually Washington, D.C. Why? The expansion of the federal government will keep occupancy rates higher in DC than in other cities. That's not to say there are no vacancies, but it certainly is a different calculation.