Wednesday, October 15, 2008

$24 Billion in Mortgages to Reset Higher? Can We See the Bottom? And Other Questions.

Why You Care normally highlights just one article a day, but we've gotten many questions about what's next - for your job, your house, etc. So today we're going to address four questions:

1) What is likely to happen in the next month? You need to keep your eye on two important items... First: Are the banks that received government cash really going to turn around and use those funds to start lending again? That's important, and the Wall Street Journal points out today this could take weeks or months. Second, in the same article the Journal notes that Citigroup thinks $24 billion in mortgages will reset next month - AND RESET HIGHER. That's a big deal for homeowners trying to hang on. Why? It is your old friend Libor - which Why You Care has previously explained is the rate at which banks lend to each other, and is often used to help reset adjustable rate mortgages (i.e. mortgages with "ARMs").

2) Is there another shoe to drop? Yes. The New York Times has a thoughtful piece on what is going to happen to salaries. The headline being don't expect raises to keep up with inflation. This, of course, will not help spending which has been the backbone of the economy. Read David Leonhardt's piece in the Times and you'll not necessarily feel better, but you'll feel smarter.

3) Have we reached the bottom? Who knows. But, the Washington Post's Steven Pearlstein makes a cogent argument that we have a ways to go, and he sketches out what the next few years could look like. The reason we are highlighting his piece is that he does an excellent job in his argument of illustrating the interconnectedness of the different parts of the economy (i.e. how it will impact everyone you know).

4) Is there any good news here at all? That depends on how you look at it. Can you look years down the road? If so, maybe. The New York Times' Alex Berenson shows a number of professional investors that think in the big picture this period will look like everything was on sale. That might be true if you have enough funds to afford the risk and not touch the money for years. Or, maybe not. Berenson's piece, however, is a terrific read.

Remember tomorrow is Thursday, and that means our futures calendar Next Week's News Today. Why You Care will be watching tonight's presidential debate in the meantime.