Thursday, October 16, 2008

Next Week's News Today (Banks, Politics, Tech Stocks, and the FDIC Tosses Out a Penalty Flag).

If it's Thursday, then it's time for Next Week's News Today. BUT, before we get to our futures calendar of what you are likely to see in the news next week, and what we hope we'll see in the news next week, we need to spotlight a story for you today.

During this economic crisis names like Bernanke have suddenly become household names. But, there's another name: Sheila Bair, the person in charge of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. Ms. Bair is now a regular in the business pages, and some of you who only read the A Section may even recognize her name and you should. Ms. Bair, as we posted in what seems like a lifetime ago on August 27, 2008, raised the red flag that more regional bank failures were likely and the Treasury may need to step in and backstop up to $100,000 in your local bank account. Voila, here we are and the Emergency Economic Stabilization Act raised that number to $250,000.

So when Ms. Bair says, hey wait a second, please look at this, it is worth a time out. Today's Wall Street Journal reports that Ms. Bair says despite all the government cash infusions into the banks, etc. that we are collectively missing the point. She says we need to be doing more for homeowners facing foreclosure, noting that you can't stabilize the economy until you stabilize housing prices. The kicker? The New York Times reports today that housing prices may not hit the bottom until the end of 2009. (Why You Care notes whether or not this forecast becomes reality will be reflected differently in different markets).

Keep your eye on Ms. Bair's advocacy. We suspect there'll be more reporting to be done.

Back to Next Week's News Today:

Yes, the presidential debates are done, but the dash to election day is now upon us. The economy is still the number one issue, so continue to look for a mix of economic and political news off the campaign trail as both candidates try to frame themselves as both a leader and a fixer.

And Congress? Look for more stories reading the tea leaves on a second stimulus bill.

Next week's economic reports are notable mostly for initial unemployment claims out Thursday and existing home sales (for September) out Friday. The real action, much like yesterday, will be in the earnings area.

There will be a number of financial and financially related institutions with earnings due next week, offering excellent news hooks to gauge the health of Wall Street and the economy. Please remember, however, that this round of earnings can't really be an indicator as to whether the economic rescue legislation worked or not. You have to give it time. None the less, American Express on Monday; E*Trade, Fifth Third Bancorp, M&T Bank, Regions Financial Corp. on Tuesday; AMBAC Financial Group, Wachovia and Washington Mutual on Wednesday; Legg Mason, MBIA Inc., SunTrust Banks and TD Ameritrade on Thursday; and T. Rowe Price on Friday -- are all going to drive news.

Of note, we wonder whether E*Trade and TD Ameritrade actually do more business during a very tough economy because of more trades than they do in a vanilla economy? We'd read that story.

Other interesting news hooks? Retailers got a lot of attention as we predicted, and perhaps a look at Amazon.com on Wednesday deserves some play.

As for the tech sector, Yahoo! on Wednesday and Interwoven and Microsoft on Friday make for a tidy look at that sector.

Could any of the earnings have potential crossover to become campaign issues? "You 'betcha" - Halliburton reports on Monday. We wouldn't be surprised to see political campaigns use that as fuel to get media attention.

As always, notable events are broken down by days below.

MONDAY 10/20
Earnings: American Express; Centex; Equifax; Equity Lifestyle Properties; Halliburton Co.; Hasbro Inc.; Mattel Inc.; Nabors Industries Ltd.; Netflix; Novartis AG; Texas Instruments; Unionbancal Corp.

Economic Reports: Leading Indicators


TUESDAY 10/21
Earnings: AK Steel; Brinker; Caterpillar; Coach; DuPont; E*Trade; Fifth Third Bancorp.; Forest Labs; KeyCorp; Lockheed Martin; M&T Bank; Manpower Inc.; McClatchy Co.; National City; Norfolk Southern; Pfizer; Regions Financial Corp.; Schering-Plough; Tupperware; UnitedHealth; US Bancorp; USG Corp..; Western Union; Yahoo!; 3M

Economic Reports: 0


WEDNESDAY 10/22
Earnings: AMBAC Financial Group; Allstate; Amazon.com; Amgen; Apple; AT&T; Boeing; Cirrus Logic; Citrix Systems; Chipotle Mexican Grill; ConocoPhillips; General Dynamics; GlaxoSmithKline; Kimberly-Clark; McDonald's; Merck; Noble Corp.; Nutrisystem; PepsiAmericas; Philip Morris International; Plantronics; Seagate Technology; Wachovia; WellPoint; Washington Mutual; Wyeth

Economic Reports: Crude Inventories


THURSDAY 10/23
Earnings: AFLAC; Air Tran Holdings; Alaska Air; Altria; Black & Decker; Bristol-Myers; Coca-Cola Enterprises; Daimler AG; Diamond Offshore; Dow Chemical; Echelon Corp; EnCana Corp.; Eli Lilly; Ethan Allen; Ford; Franklin Resources; Genworth Financial; Goodrich; Interwoven; Janus Capitol; Jetblue Airways; Legg Mason; MBIA Inc.; Microsoft; Midas; National Oilwell Varco; New York Times; Precision Drilling; Raymond James; Raytheon; SEI Investments; Starwood Hotels; SunTrust Banks; TD Ameritrade; Union Pacific; US Airways; Wendy's; Whirlpool; Xerox

Economic Reports: Initial (unemployment) Claims

FRIDAY 10/24
Earnings: Ericsson L M; Fortune Brands; Gannett; ITT Corp; T. Rowe Price

Economic Reports: Existing Homes Sales (for September)