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Our Weekly Wall Street/Capitol Hill Crib Sheet: Playing the Expectation Game [Updated 4/24]

Last week we were, of course, dead on to spotlight earnings, Pres. Obama's economic speech, and Federal Reserve Board Chmn. Bernanke's two speeches as the news drivers of the week.

This week earnings were already the week's focus by the time the Sunday papers hit your doorstep and/or your laptop screen. But as always there's much more out there. In particular, Treasury Secy. Geithner is appearing before the Congressional Oversight Panel to take TARP questions come Tuesday (4/21), and we count seven Capitol Hill hearings this week touching on different aspects of the economy. AND, come Friday (4/24) we expect to see the methodology released for those bank stress tests (for TARP recipients) if media reports are right.

For our MBA readers and MBA wannabes why you care: We humbly suggest that this week, more so than others, is about playing the expectation game. As we go to print the market is down, and there are many earnings still to come through out the week. Does the pessimism end up in a rally? Maybe yes, maybe no. We think the week as a snapshot is less important than getting through to Friday and the coverage of the stress test methodology. If deemed to be fair, and the banks end up coming out better than expected on May 4 - than that will be telling. So watch for lots of coverage on each earning, and dissection of whether the expectation game was won or lost. But, don't get too sucked in. Keep your focus on the journalism around the stress test methodology.

Here's your weekly crib sheet of events that will garner press coverage... We do caution that you check back to WhyYouCare.com for updates on scheduling.

MONDAY 4/20
Earnings: Bank of America, Bank of Hawaii, BancorpSouth, Eli Lilly, Halliburton, Hasbro, IBM, Pinnacle Financial, Texas Instruments, Zions Bancorp.

Economic Reports: Federal Reserve's weekly interest rate data; Leading indicators (for March).

Pres. Obama: Speaks to CIA employees "about the importance of CIA's mission to our national security." Press coverage allowed.

Senate: Reconvenes and considers Fraud Enforcement and Recovery Act (FERA) of 2009 (S.386).

Bernanke: Speaks at the Financial Literacy and Education Summit on "Global Best Practices in Financial Education."

Discussion: Brookings Institution - on "Wall Street's role in triggering the economic crisis and the role Wall Street leaders may play in leading us out."

Conference: Financial Services Cmte. Chmn. Rep. Barney Frank speaks at the National Low Income Housing Coalition policy conference.


TUESDAY 4/21
Earnings: Advanced Micro Devices, Bank of New York , BlackRock, Capitol One, Caterpillar, Coach, Coca-Cola, Colonial BancGroup, Comerica, DuPont, Huntington Banc, IberiaBank, KeyCorp, Lockheed Martin, M&T Bank, Manpower, Merck, New York Times, Norfolk Southern, Northern Trust, SanDisk, Schering-Plough, Seagate Tech, State Street, TD Ameritrade, United Health, US Bancorp, Webster Financial, Yahoo!

Pres. Obama: Meets with King Abdullah II of Jordan at the White House.

Treasury Secy. Geithner: Appears before the Congressional Oversight Panel to discuss TARP.

House: Reconvenes from recess.

Nomination: Senate Finance Cmte. votes on HHS Secy. nominee Kathleen Sebelius.

Hearing: House Oversight and Govt. Reform Cmte. holds field hearings on stimulus spending.

Hearing: Joint Economic Cmte's hearing on criteria used to determine if institutions pose systemic risk to the financial system.

Hearing: [POSTPONED] House Oversight and Government Reform Cmte's Domestic Policy Subcmte. holds hearing on "Debating Treasury's Plan for Toxic Assets."

Hearing: House Judiciary Cmte's Courts and Competition Policy Subcmte. holds hearing on "A New Age for Newspapers: Diversity of Voices, Competition and the Internet."

Conference: HUD Secy. Shaun Donovan. speaks at the National Low Income Housing Coalition policy conference.


WEDNESDAY 4/22
Earnings: Altria, Apple, AT&T, Boeing, Continental Air, eBay, Equifax, Kimberly-Clark, Knight Capital Group, McDonald's, Morgan Stanley, Northrop Grumman, Pepsi Bottling, Provident Financial, Qualcomm, WellPoint, Wells Fargo.

Economic Reports: Federal Housing Finance Agency releases monthly house price index estimates; Mortgage Bankers Assoc. releases weekly data on mortgage applications.

Treasury Secy. Geithner: Speaks at the Economic Club of Washington's breakfast.

National Press Club: Agriculture Secy. Thomas Vilsack speaks on Earth Day.


THURSDAY 4/23
Earnings: Alaska Air, Amazon.com, American Express, American Financial, Amgen, CIT Group, ConocoPhillips, Fifth Third, Ford Motor, Franklin Electric, Genworth Financial, Goodrich, Hershey Foods, Invesco, Janus Capital, Marriott, Microsoft, Novartis, PepsiCo, Phillip Morris International, PNC Bank, Raytheon, Regal Entertainment, Royal Caribbean, SunTrust Banks, Union Pacific, UPS, US Airways.

Economic Reports: Existing home sales (for March), Initial unemployment claims (for 4/18).

Pres. Obama: Washington Post reports that Pres. Obama will meet with 14 banks' credit card division heads regarding customers/practices.

Hearing: Joint Economic Cmte. holds hearing on TARP Inspector General Neil Barofsky's quarterly report. Mr. Barofsky is the witness.

Hearing: House Financial Services Cmte. holds hearing on mortgage regulations/lending practices.

Hearing: Senate Homeland Security and Govt. Cmte. holds a hearing on "Follow the Money: State and Local Oversight of Stimulus Funding."


FRIDAY 4/24
Earnings: 3M, Honeywell, MB Financial, T. Rowe Price, Wilmington Trust, Xerox.

Economic Report: Durable orders (for March), New home sales (for March).

Stress Tests: According to media reports the methodology for those much talked about TARP recipient stress tests is released this day. Results expected on May 4, 2009.

Treasury Secy. Geithner: Hosts G-7 Finance Ministers meeting in Washington, DC. 4:30p ET presser announced per Treasury Dept. [Note: The G-7 are the U.S., U.K, Canada, France, Germany, Italy and Japan.]

Our Weekly Wall Street/Capitol Hill Crib Sheet is Back

After a brief end of fiscal year hiatus we are back. And just in time, because you saw the headlines over the weekend discussing what a big earnings week it will be, so it comes as no shock that Goldman Sachs reported today (one day early). But what will be the other drivers? What if we told you that the Federal Reserve twice yearly report on the economy is due this week? And what if we told you that Pres. Obama will give an economic speech on Tuesday (4/14)? Oh, and what if we told that Federal Reserve Board Chairman Ben Bernanke has not one, but two speeches this week? We think those will be worth keeping an eye on.

For our MBA readers why you care: We suspect you'll see three themes in the press this week - 1) taxes (obvious); 2) earnings (also obvious); and 3) stories about how the economic downturn is hurting countries south of the U.S. border. That's because the Summit of the Americas is at the end of the week with Pres. Obama in attendance but not without making a pit stop in Mexico along the way. Lost in all of this is the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) discussion on credit rating agency oversight (4/15). We think your eyes and ears should be tuned into that as much as the other stories.

For our MBA wannabes why you care: Earnings are important (otherwise we wouldn't included notes on them each week), but remember earnings are how a company did the prior quarter, not necessary an iron clad indicator on how it will do the following quarter or in a year.

Here's your weekly crib sheet... We do caution that you check back to WhyYouCare.com for updates on scheduling.

MONDAY 4/13
Earnings: Goldman Sachs* (*One day early).



TUESDAY 4/14
Earnings: Commerce Bancshares, CSX Corp, Intel, Johnson & Johnson.

Economic Reports: Producer Price Index (for March), Retails Sales (for March).

Pres. Obama: 11:30a, Economic speech at Georgetown University.

Bernanke: 1:30p ET speech on the financial crisis at Morehouse College, Atlanta, GA.

Briefing: Citizens Against Government Waste on their Congressional Pig Book (report on federal pork-barrel spending).

Briefing: Transportation Secy. Ray LaHood the stimulus law and transportation funding.

Hearing: Senate Small Business and Entrepreneurship Cmte.'s field hearing on manufacturing plant closures.



WEDNESDAY 4/15 - TAX DAY
Earnings: Abbott Labs, Charles Schwab, Knight Capital Group, Piper Jaffray, Progressive.

Economic Reports: Consumer Price Index (for March), Fed's Beige Book (the Fed's report on the economy), Mortgage Applications data (from Mortgage Bankers Assoc.).

Discussion: Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) on the oversight of credit rating agencies.



THURSDAY 4/16
Earnings: Associated Banc Corp., BlackRock, Gannett, Genuine Parts, Google, Harley-Davidson, JP Morgan Chase, Nokia.

Economic Reports: Initial Claims (for 4/11), Housing Starts, Building Permits.

National Press Club: Dominique Strauss-Kahn, Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund discusses the recession.

Pres. Obama: Stops in Mexico on his way to the Summit of the Americas.



FRIDAY 4/17
Earnings: BB&T Corp., Citigroup, First Horizon, General Electric, Mattel, Prosperity Bancshares.

Economic Report: Federal Reserve System's data on the assets and liabilities of U.S. commercial banks.

Pres. Obama: Participates in the Summit of the Americas in Trinidad and Tobago.

Bernanke: 12:30p ET speech on "Challenges Presented by Innovations in Financial Services for the Underserved."

Treasury's Final Piece of the Puzzle + Your Capitol Hill & Wall Street Events Cheat Sheet

Last week we were correct to say that the focus would be on the many Capitol Hill hearings related to the financial recovery. We were also spot on when we told you to keep your eye out for news on the Treasury's final piece of the recovery puzzle: the public-private bank partnership. Et voila, by the end of last week you had bits and pieces of news on the program, over the weekend it got front page treatment, and today the Treasury Department is unveiling it.

For our MBA readers here's why you care: You can find Treasury's press release here which will give you the white paper, and the term sheets to the two components of the "Public-Private Investment Program" which are programs targeting loans and securities. We note that the press release includes a mention of avoiding the "Japanese experience" which is certainly an acknowledgement that the concern is just how long the recovery will take.

For our MBA-Wannabes here's why you care: The Washington Post's Neil Irwin has a good synopsis of the program, which you need to understand because the Treasury is banking on this plan to get banks lending again, and most notably shorten the length of the recession.

As you can imagine this week will be dominated by dissecting the Treasury's new program. In particular Pres. Obama has a prime-time news conference on Tuesday. However, Treasury Secy. Geithner and Federal Reserve Chmn. Bernanke will be back on Capitol Hill, this time for another round of AIG hearings which will gather headlines. But that's not all, Secy. Geithner is also giving a talk to the Wall Street Journal. Shall we say full court sales press? The result should be extended coverage of the new program and the recovery, and we suspect by the end of the week our MBA-Wannabes will be talking like our MBAs.

Here's your cheat sheet... We do caution that you check back to WhyYouCare.com for updates on scheduling.

Here's why you care about this week's trends in earnings, reports and hearings:
Reports: Home Prices (3/24), Homes Sales (3/25), and Unemployment (3/26).

Such a big week that you could almost miss it?: CNN, AP and NPR heads at the National Press Club talk the future of journalism in a tough financial reality.

MONDAY 3/23
Earnings: Focus Media, Providence Service Corp., Sonic, Tiffany & Co., Walgreen.

Economic Report: Existing Home Sales (for Feb.)

Pres. Obama: Along with VP Biden, Treasury Secy. Geithner, FDIC Chmn. Bair and Federal Reserve Chmn. Bernanke has economic briefing followed renewable energy statement.

Briefing: Treasury Secy. Geithner, "pen & pad" on the administration financial recovery plan.

Briefing: Rep. Mike Pence (R-IN) House Republican Conference Chmn. Has "pen & pad" reporting briefing.

Conference: Wall Street Journal's "Future of Finance Initiative" conference. Speaker: Treasury Secy. Geithner.

Hearing: House Financial Services Cmte. on "Seeking Solutions: Finding Credit for Small and Mid-Size Businesses in Massachusetts."

Conference: Kalb Report at the National Press Club: The future of journalism, hosted by Marvin Kalb with guests - AP President Tom Curley, NPR President Vivian Schiller, CNN President Jon Klein and Knight Foundation President Alberto Ibarguen.


TUESDAY 3/24
Earnings: Carnival, Commercial Metals, Williams-Sonoma.

Economic Report: FHFA Home Prices (for Feb.).

Pres. Obama: 8p ET - Prime-Time News Conference.

Hearings:

Senate Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs Cmte. on banking regulation.

Senate Judiciary Cmte's Administrative Oversight Subcmte. on "Abusive Credit Card Practices and Bankruptcy."

House Financial Services Cmte. on the government's intervention in AIG: Witnesses: Treasury Secy. Geithner and Federal Reserve Chmn. Bernanke.

House Energy and Commerce Cmte's Commerce, Trade and Consumer Protection Subcmte. on "Consumer Credit and Debt: The Role of the Federal Trade Commission in Protecting the Public."

Conference: National Press Club hosts Fmr. Congressional Budget Office Director Alice Rivlin on "The Economy and the financial meltdown--what happened and what can we do now?"

Conference: Wall Street Journal's "Future of Finance Initiative" conference. Speakers: Sen. Evan Bayh (D-IN) and Rep. Carolyn Maloney (D-NY).


WEDNESDAY 3/25
Earnings: Paychex, Red Hat, SAIC.

Economic Reports: Mortgage Applications data, New Home Sales (for Feb.).

Hearings:

House Oversight and Government Reform Cmte's Government Management, Organization and Procurement Subcmte. on "Roles and Responsibilities of Inspectors General in Financial Markets Regulatory Agencies."

House Financial Services Cmte. drafts legislation prohibiting companies receiving government financial recovery funds from paying bonuses until the government is paid back.


THURSDAY 3/26
Earnings: Accenture, Aladin Knowledge Systems, Best Buy, ConAgra, Conns, Dr. Pepper Snapple, Fred's, Movado Group, Texas Industries,

Economic Reports: Initial (Unemployment) Claims (for 3/21), Fourth Quarter GDP.

Hearings:

Senate Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs Cmte. on the regulation of securities markets.

House Financial Services Cmte. on "Addressing the Need for Comprehensive Regulatory Reform." Witness: Treasury Secy. Geithner.



FRIDAY 3/27
Earnings: KB Home.

Economic Report: Personal Income/Personal Spending (for Feb.).


SATURDAY 3/28
Hearing: House Financial Services Cmte's Housing and Community Opportunity Subcmte. field hearing on foreclosures in Los Angeles.

Canary in the Coal Mine Business Story You Shouldn't Miss

While the lead story today will continue to be on executive bonuses, we think the story you shouldn't miss is on the financial recovery process itself.

For our MBA-Wannabes here's why you care: The LA Times' Roger Vincent has a terrific story examining the commercial real estate market in Los Angeles. Sectors like commercial real estate are something of a canary in coal mine for measuring the health of the economy as transactions rely on lending, credit, functioning banks, and so forth. Vincent's story matters to you because he deftly shows how the economy has left buyers and sellers without a way to really tell the value of a property which only further paralyzes the market. He also shows how this ultimately makes it a good time be a business in search of a lease. Take a moment and read Vincent's piece and consider what other cities are going through similar scenarios - New York, Miami, etc.

For our MBAs here's why you care: We note that the one commercial market that is not in LA style dire straights is actually Washington, D.C. Why? The expansion of the federal government will keep occupancy rates higher in DC than in other cities. That's not to say there are no vacancies, but it certainly is a different calculation.

Your Capitol Hill & Wall Street Events Cheat Sheet (Bernanke Bookends Addition)

Last week we were correct to say that the focus would be on Treasury Secy. Timothy Geithner's and the director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), Peter Orszag's myriad trips to Capitol Hill. Early in the week, we updated the website with a link to a terrific piece outlining what the FDIC's Sheila Bair thought would happen next in the recovery. We spotlighted it because she was focused on the public/private bank partnership (which will assist banks in unloading unwanted assets) that has been called everything from a bad bank to an aggregator bank. The most important part of that story was a source saying we might get the details as early as this week.

We were disappointed to hear over the weekend on the Sunday talk shows that the administration needs more time, however, we suspect this week you may see some leaks on this topic.

This week is bookended by Federal Reserve Chmn. Ben Bernanke due to his 60 Minutes interview last night (which you can easily watch and read on the web) where he said the recovery would begin in 2010. The week will end with a speech by Chmn. Bernanke, and it may end up being interesting depending on how the news cycle dissects his Scott Pelley interview.

In the meantime, we've outline a dozen hearings this week in Congress that will be fodder to scrutinize the Troubled Asset Relief Program "TARP," Chmn. Bernanke's comments, and oh - of course - certain bonuses that have gotten headlines in the past few days.

Here's your cheat sheet... We do caution that you check back to WhyYouCare.com for updates on scheduling.

Here's why you care about next week's trends in earnings, reports and hearings:
Reports: Building Permits and Housing Starts (3/17), Retails Sales and Unemployment (3/19).

Such a big week that you could almost miss it?: Commerce Secy. confirmation hearing (3/18).

MONDAY 3/16
Earnings: Education Realty Trust, Oriental Financial Group, Patriot Capital Funding, PMI Group, Providence Service Corp., Sterling Construction.

Conference: National Association of Housing and Redevelopment Officials 2009 conference in Washington, D.C. In attendance: HUD Secy. Shaun Donovan.

Discussion: Center for American Progress on "Imagining a Mortgage Finance System that Works."


TUESDAY 3/17
Earnings: AAR Corp., Adobe Systems, Anthracite Capital, Goldman Sachs, Pinnacle, Sirius XM Radio

Economic Reports: Building Permits (for Feb.), Housing Starts (for Feb.), Producer Price Index (PPI) (for Feb.)

Hearings:

House Energy and Commerce Cmte's Commerce, Trade and Consumer Protection Subcmte. on "Stimulating the Economy through Trade: Examining the Role of Export Promotion."

House Financial Services Cmte. on regulation of systemic risk in the financial services industry.

House Judiciary Cmte's Courts and Competition Policy Subcmte. on "Too Big To Fail?: The Role of Antitrust Law in Government-Funded Consolidation in the Banking Industry."

Conference: National Association of Housing and Redevelopment Officials 2009 conference in Washington, D.C. In attendance: Rep. Tom Latham (R-IA), Rep. Albio Sires (D-NJ), Rep. Shelley Moore Capito (R-WV).


WEDNESDAY 3/18
Earnings: Actuant, General Mills, Lindsay Corp., Nike, Oracle.

Economic Reports: Consumer Price Index (CPI), FOMC (Federal Open Markets Cmte.) Rate Decision, Mortgage Bankers Association releases weekly data on mortgage applications.

Hearing: House Financial Services Cmte's Capital Markets, Insurance and Government Sponsored Enterprises Subcmte. on "American International Group's Impact on the Global Economy: Before, During and After Federal Intervention." Witness: AIG CEO Edward Liddy.

Confirmation Hearing: Senate Commerce, Science and Transportation Cmte's confirmation hearing for Commerce Secy. nominee Gary Locke.

Conference: National Association of Housing and Redevelopment Officials 2009 conference in Washington, D.C. - closing ceremony.


THURSDAY 3/19
Earnings: 3com, Barnes & Noble, Blockbuster, Carnival, Discover Financial Services, FedEx, Morgan Stanley, Perry Ellis, Ross Stores,

Economic Reports: Initial Unemployment Claims (for 3/14), Primary Mortgage Market Survey (mortgage rate survey).

Hearings:

Senate Small Business and Entrepreneurship Cmte. on small business lending.

House Appropriations Cmte's Financial Services and General Government Subcmte. on fiscal 2010 appropriations.

House Oversight and Government Reform Cmte. on "Preventing Stimulus Waste And Fraud: Who are the Watchdogs?"

House Ways and Means Cmte's Oversight Subcmte. on the Troubled Asset Relief Program.

House Financial Services Cmte's Capital Markets, Insurance and Government Sponsored Enterprises Subcmte. on administration programs that allow homeowners to refinance or modify their mortgages.

Senate Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs Cmte. on modernizing bank supervision and regulation.

Senate Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs Cmte's Financial Institutions Subcmte. on deposit insurance.


FRIDAY 3/20
Earnings: Kirklands

Hearing: House Financial Services Cmte. on "Federal and State Enforcement of Financial Consumer and Investor Protection Laws."

Speech: Federal Reserve Chmn. Ben Bernanke on "The Financial Crisis and Community Banking" at the Independent Community Bankers of America's National Convention in Phoenix, AZ.

FDIC's Head Outlines What's Likely to Happen Next

Here's the headline: More tax dollars are needed, but tax payers may end up making money.

For our MBA-Wannabes here's why you care: We've noted a number of times that you can agree/disagree with the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation's Chairwoman, Sheila Bair, but what you have to give her and the FDIC credit for is offering up early in the financial crisis a very detailed rescue plan. Many of the elements in place now come from Bair's plan. That's why it is worth your time today to read Washington Post reporter Binyamin Appelbaum's story about what Bair thinks needs to happen next. Not surprisingly it all comes back to how and when banks can sell assets. Recall that the Treasury promoted a public/private partnership to buy the assets dragging down banks' balance sheets. The shape of that partnership is what is being discussed in this article.

For our MBAs here's why you care: The plan to buy/sell bank assets could be detailed as early as next week.

Your Weekly Capitol Hill/Wall Street Events Cheat Sheet

We are trying something new this week with our events calendar and publishing at the start of the week instead of the preceding week's end. Let us know what you think, as we continue to play with the website (and that's a hint as we are working on a redesign/launch).

Last week we were correct to say that the focus would be on the budget with Federal Reserve Chmn. Ben Bernanke, Treasury Secy. Timothy Geithner and the director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), Peter Orszag, making multiple trips to Capitol Hill. The sheer volume of coverage was impressive. What we were surprised by was Treasury's announcement of more details in the housing plan without a strategic leak to the press. Normally you see leaks in the paper to set up the information presented at the hearing, but not this time. That is a shame because it would have given journos time to detail the story further. And, it is definitely a story needing the focus on the detail and nuance and less on the heat and politics. Conversely, one of the Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP) hearings this week has already leaked (today) to the Washington Post (click here for the story) parts of their report to be examined this week.

This week feels similar to last - appearances by Secy. Geithner and OMB Dir. Orszag on Capitol Hill to talk budget and, of course, the Troubled Asset Relief Program "TARP" (all detailed below). President Obama and Vice President get into the act this week with a financial recovery conference on Thursday - we expect more details to come out in the next day or so. What will be interesting to see is if the conference is a photo-op oriented or policy detail oriented. These will be the events that will drive DC financial coverage.

We'll definitely be watching, you should too. We do caution that you check back to WhyYouCare.com for updates on scheduling.

Here's why you care about next week's trends in earnings and reports:
Reports: Mortgages Applications (3/11), Retails Sales and Unemployment (3/12).

Such a big week that you could almost miss it?: There are two hearings this week that will likely end up inside the business pages but shouldn't. They should be general consumption. The first is an examination of the Securities and Exchange Commission, with SEC Chrwmn. Mary Shapiro testifying (3/11). The second is a hearing on Thursday (3/12) looking at "mark-to-market" accounting. Both are exactly that type of thing that sounds boring to the non-MBA set, and is exactly the type of thing the MBA set is focusing on instead of the photo-ops. How businesses run their books and how the SEC polices actions ultimately impact all of us (see daily headlines). But, when the nitty gritty gets examined the good journalistic reporting often gets ignored.

MONDAY 3/9
Hearing: Senate Finance Cmte's U.S. Trade Representative confirmation hearing for Roland Kirk.



TUESDAY 3/10
Earnings: Dick's Sporting Goods, J.Crew, Kroger, Patriot Capital Funding.

Hearings:

House Appropriations Cmte's Financial Services and General Government Subcmte. on the Treasury and the financial crisis. Witnesses: Secy. Geithner and Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP) Inspector General Neil Barofsky.

Senate Budget Cmte. on the proposed 2010 budget. Witness: Office of Management and Budget Dir. Peter R. Orszag. [EDITOR'S NOTE: RESCHEDULED FROM LAST WEEK.]

Senate Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs Cmte. on protecting investors and regulating securities markets.

Senate Health, Education, Labor and Pensions Cmte. on "Rebuilding Economic Security: Empowering Workers to Restore the Middle Class."



WEDNESDAY 3/11
Earnings: American Eagle, Diamond Foods, National Semi, Newcastle Investment, Quicksilver, Staples, Vail Resorts.

Economic Reports: Mortgage Bankers Association releases weekly data on mortgage applications.

Hearings:

House Financial Services Cmte. on " Views and Estimates Report" to the House Budget Cmte. and mark up pending legislation: Special Inspector General for the Troubled Asset Relief Program Act of 2009.

House Oversight and Govt. Reform Cmte's Domestic Policy Subcmte on "TARP Oversight: Assessing Treasury's Efforts to Prevent Waste and Abuse of Taxpayer Funds." Selected Witnesses: Neel Kashkari, Bush administration's interim Asst. Treasury Secy (you'll recall present at the birth of TARP) and Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP) Inspector General Neil Barofsky.

House Armed Services Cmte. the security and the global financial crisis.

House Appropriations Cmte's Financial Services and General Govt. Subcmte. on the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the financial crisis. Witness: SEC Chrwmn. Mary Shapiro.

Joint Economic Cmte. on TARP: Accountability, oversight and transparency.

House Budget Cmte. on the proposed 2010 budget.

House Financial Services Cmte's Financial Institutions and Consumer Credit Subcmte. on "Mortgage Lending Reform: A Comprehensive View of the American Mortgage System."

House Judiciary Subcmte's Commercial and Administrative Law Subcmte. on "Circuit City Unplugged: Why Did Chapter 11 Fail to Save 34,000 Jobs?" [EDITOR'S NOTE: RESCHEDULED FROM LAST WEEK.]



THURSDAY 3/12
Earnings: Anthracite Capital, Interstate Hotels, MGM Mirage, NGP Capital Resources, ZipRealty.

Economic Report: Business Inventories (for Jan.), Initial Unemployment Claims for (3/7), Retails Sales (for Feb.).

Conference: Pres. Obama and V.P. Biden on "White House Recovery and Reinvestment Act Implementation Conference to ensure that dollars invested and spent as part of the Recovery Act are effective, transparent and efficient."

Hearings:

Senate Budget Cmte. on the proposed 2010 budget. Witness: Treasury Secy. Geithner.

House Financial Services Cmte's Capital Markets, Insurance and Govt. Sponsored Enterprises Subcmte.on mark-to-market accounting rules.

House Small Business Cmte's Contracting and Technology Panel on "Ensuring Stimulus Contracts for Small and Veteran-owned Businesses."



FRIDAY 3/13
Earnings: Compass Group

Economic Reports: Export and Import Prices (for Feb.)

Next Week's News Today (Budget Hearing Bonanza Edition)

It's time for Next Week's News Today where we publish our weekly calendar of earnings, reports, hearings and political events which will either drive the news, or deserve more attention. Last week we were correct to say that the bank stress tests and congressional testimony from Fed. Chmn. Ben Bernanke and the President's Economic Advisory Board Chmn. Paul Volcker would drive the market and the news (in addition to the obvious conclusion that the week would be filled with analysis of President Obama address to Congress).

This coming week will be all about the budget with Chmn. Bernanke, Treasury Secy. Geithner and the director of the Office of Management and Budget making multiple trips to Capitol Hill. As of now there are seven congressional hearings this coming week devoted to the budget. Additionally, you'll see a TARP hearing and an accountability hearing on stimulus spending noted below. All of which should generate excellent coverage.

We'll definitely be watching, you should too. We do caution that you check back to WhyYouCare.com for updates on scheduling.

Here's why you care about next week's trends in earnings and reports:

MONDAY 3/2
Earnings: Allied Capital, American Capital, Ares Capital, BPZ Energy, DISH Network, Edison, Fannie Mae, Franklin Electric, First Industrial Realty, Kenneth Cole, Pepco Holdings, Sun Healthcare, TiVo, Tower Group.

Economic Reports: Construction spending (for Jan.); Federal Reserve releases weekly interest rates information; Personal income and outlays (for Jan.).

Speech: NPR CEO Vivian Schiller, National Press Club on "What Public Broadcasting can learn from commercial media... and vice versa."


TUESDAY 3/3
Earnings: America's Car-Mart, AutoZone, Jackson Hewitt, MBIA Inc., Patriot Capital Funding, Reliant Energy, URS, Verifone, Virgin Mobile USA.

Economic Report: Car/truck sales (for Feb.); Pending home sales (for Jan.).

Hearings:
House Ways and Means Cmte. on the proposed 2010 budget. Witness: Treas. Secy. Timothy Geithner.

Senate Budget Cmte. on budget challenges. Witness: Federal Reserve Board Chmn. Ben Bernanke.

House Budget Cmte. on the proposed 2010 budget. Witness: Office of Management and Budget (OMB) Dir. Peter R. Orszag.

Senate Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs Cmte. on consumer protections in financial services.

House Judiciary Subcmte's Commercial and Administrative Law Subcmte. on "Circuit City Unplugged: Why Did Chapter 11 Fail to Save 34,000 Jobs?" [EDITOR'S NOTE, AS OF 3/2 THIS IS POSTONED.]


WEDNESDAY 3/4
Earnings: ABM Industries, Allis-Chalmers Energy, BJ's Wholesale, Costco, Cox Radio, Cross Country, Dynamex, Foot Locker, Monaco Coach, PETsMART, U.S. Concrete, Weight Watchers.

Economic Reports: Federal Reserve releases the "Beige Book" (economic conditions report); Weekly mortgage applications report.

Hearings:
Senate Finance Cmte. on the proposed 2010 budget. Witness: Treas. Secy. Timothy Geithner.

Senate Budget Cmte. on budget challenges. Witness: Office of Management and Budget (OMB) Dir. Peter Orszag (9:30a ET).

House Ways and Means Cmte. on the proposed 2010 budget. Witness: Office of Management and Budget (OMB) Dir. Peter Orszag (2p ET).

House Financial Services Cmte's Financial Institutions and Consumer Credit Subcmte. on "TARP [Troubled Asset Relief Program] Oversight: Is TARP Working for Main Street?"
Senate Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Cmte. on "Where Were the Watchdogs? Systemic Risk and the Breakdown of Financial Governance."

Senate Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Cmte's Permanent Investigations Subcmte. on "Tax Haven Banks and U.S. Tax Compliance - Obtaining the Names of U.S. Clients With Swiss Accounts."


THURSDAY 3/5
Earnings: Alliant Energy, Bankrate, bebe stores, Belden, Belo, Brookfield Properties, Bunge, Burger King, CIGNA, Cincinnati Bell, Cincinnati Financial Corp, Diamond Management, Diamond Offshore, Duke Energy, Earthlink, Echelon, Elizabeth Arden, Estee Lauder, Evercore, Hartford Financial, Imperial Sugar, Infinity Property & Casualty, Kellog, Kimco Realty, Knoll, M/I Homes, Mastercard, McClatchy, Moody's, Prestige Brands, Sonoco Products, Tenneco, Timberland, Warner Music Group, Western Union.

Economic Report: Initial unemployment claims (for 2/28).

Hearings:
House Budget Cmte. on the Treasury Dept.'s 2010 budget. Witness: Treas. Secy. Timothy Geithner.

Senate Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Cmte. on stimulus spending accountability. Witnesses: Office of Management and Budget (OMB) Dir. Peter Orszag. and Govt. Accountability Office Acting Dir. Eugene Dodaro.

House Financial Services Cmte's Capital Markets, Insurance and Government Sponsored Enterprises Subcmte. on monitoring risk in the financial services industry.

Senate Finance Cmte's U.S. Trade Representative confirmation hearing for Roland Kirk. [EDITOR'S NOTE, AS OF 3/2 THIS IS POSTPONED TO MONDAY 3/9.]


FRIDAY 3/6
Earnings: H & R Block.

Economic Reports: Bank assets and liabilities (Federal Reserve weekly data); Consumer credit (measuring debt for Jan.); Hourly earnings (for Feb.); Unemployment rate (for Feb.)

Is Your Mortgage Deduction Federal Budget Roadkill?

President Obama's budget is understandably getting all the news attention. But, our mission is to focus on what's inside the paper, not on the front page. That's why we say, go read the lead story on the budget. THEN read these two pieces.

1) Your Mortgage Deduction May Get Dialed Back.

Here's why you care: The Wall Street Journal's Nick Timiraos has an important nugget from the President's proposed budget: Top earners could see their mortgage deduction dialed back should the budget pass. Ah, but who are top earners? As we like to say in the legal profession, that's a defined term. Which, of course, is another way of saying it can mean whatever the author wants it to mean. Read Timiraos' piece and decide for yourself.


2) The Fund that Insures Your Bank Account? It Needs Money.

Here's why you care: As most people know the FDIC insures your bank account, which is to say if the bank implodes, you still get your money. When the bottom fell out of the market the insurance amount was raised from $100,000 to $250,000. But, there's a problem: The fund that insures the accounts is based on payments from banks. And, because more banks have gone under, or are in trouble, the fund's size is dramatically smaller. What to do? The Washington Post's Binyamin Appelbaum explains the plan.

Is Your Mortgage Deduction Federal Budget Roadkill?

President Obama's budget is understandably getting all the news attention. But, our mission is to focus on what's inside the paper, not on the front page. That's why we say, go read the lead story on the budget. THEN read these two pieces.

1) Your Mortgage Deduction May Get Dialed Back.

Here's why you care: The Wall Street Journal's Nick Timiraos has an important nugget from the President's proposed budget: Top earners could see their mortgage deduction dialed back should the budget pass. Ah, but who are top earners? As we like to say in the legal profession, that's a defined term. Which, of course, is another way of saying it can mean whatever the author wants it to mean. Read Timiraos' piece and decide for yourself.


2) The Fund that Insures Your Bank Account? It Needs Money.

Here's why you care: As most people know the FDIC insures your bank account, which is to say if the bank implodes, you still get your money. When the bottom fell out of the market the insurance amount was raised from $100,000 to $250,000. But, there's a problem: The fund that insures the accounts is based on payments from banks. And, because more banks have gone under, or are in trouble, the fund's size is dramatically smaller. What to do? The Washington Post's Binyamin Appelbaum explains the plan.

Congress Takes on Modifying Mortgages in Bankruptcy

We've been highlighting the issue for a while (most recently in our Tuesday posting) that Congress would like to have bankruptcy judges be able to modify mortgages in court.

Here's why you care: On the one hand it would give an avenue for those underwater to make their case and move on. On the the hand, it is going to cost those that lend and/or hold those mortgages a bundle of money - which will be passed on to you the next time you borrow. None the less, the House is taking it up, and the Senate is next. We figure you've seen all the front page headlines on the President Obama's budget so we thought we'd highlight the mortgage story instead since you may have missed it. The Los Angeles Times' Jim Puzzanghera has a well written story laying out all sides, and the costs (and potential costs). Give it a read and you'll be ahead of the curve.

Envelope Pushing Obama Web Coverage & Two Stories You Shouldn't Miss in the Business Pages

WhyYouCare is breaking from our norm of highlighting one article today because of the deluge of post presidential address coverage. If for some unforeseen reason you missed President Obama's address to Congress you are saved by the internet. Just about every news organization has posted a transcript (like CNN has here). However, we are particularly impressed with the web producing by both the Wall Street Journal and the New York Times for different reasons.

The New York Times has posted the entire video of President Obama's address (like many news outlets) online. However, the New York Times has one-upped the others by providing written analysis that corresponds to the President's address. In other words, as the video plays and you listen the President, written reporters' analysis automatically scrolls by for that particular moment in the speech. Nothing short of terrific producing. Which bring us to the Wall Street Journal which picked certain topics in the speech and compared those words to prior Presidents'. You just need to click on economy and compare President Obama to Presidents Kennedy and Reagan. Also, nothing short of terrific. So, if you missed it, or want more, you got it.

But our mission statement is finding the buried stories that put you ahead of the curve, and today there are two.

Here's why you care: The first is Wall Street Journal's Nick Timiraos who has written a piece on crunching the numbers on the age old dilemma of buying vs. renting. You care if you already own because as prices drop buying becomes more attractive, thus eventually driving prices back up again. Read this story, he's ahead of the curve.

Here's why you care: Another reporter ahead of the curve is the New York Times' David Leonhardt who today outlines in his Economic Scene column that the cost of a strong military and programs like Medicare mean one thing in the coming years: Higher taxes. His reporting is based on comments made by Republicans and Democrats at the White House's fiscal responsibility summit which we noted on our events calendar. His column is thoughtful and forward looking, and thus you should give him a couple minutes of your time. He'll put you ahead of the curve.

Modifying Mortgages in Bankruptcy and a Crib Sheet for Tonight's Congressional Address

As we pointed out in our events calendar for the week, Next Week's News Today - there are two key hearings on Capitol Hill today. One examining TARP, and the other loan modifications. Those hearings provide the context for President Obama's address to Congress tonight (9p ET).

Here's why you care: The first hearing examines TARP and will undoubtedly address the issue of banks needing more cash, and how the administration plans to measure both the need and effectiveness of further cash injections into financial institutions (remember as we noted yesterday the "stress tests" for banks start tomorrow). But the second hearing caught our eye because we think it might get over looked. What may or may not come up in the hearing regarding loan modifications is a bill in the House that would allow bankruptcy judges to modify loans. CNN is running a good Reuter's wire story explaining what's in the bill which may get voted on by Thursday. The story does a good job of outlining the stakes and why you care. Meanwhile, given that all of this is happening as the President prepares to address Congress, we thought it worth a mention that the Washington Post staff put together something of a crib sheet or racing form breaking down all the areas of the economy that President Obama is likely to hit tonight. It is a great graphic to use alongside tonight's speech.

Bank "Stress Tests" Start Wednesday

As we noted in yesterday's posting of our events calendar for the week - Next Week's News Today - there's been a lot of talk about the nationalization of banks (see our explanation yesterday). And part of that has been in anticipation of the government checking on the health of banks receiving tax payer dollars ("stress tests"). Thus, we were not surprised to see on the front page of the New York Times this morning Edmund Andrews' story "As Doubts Grow, U.S. Will Judge Banks' Stability." We figure you saw it because it is on the front page. What you didn't see is the just released joint statement by the Treasury, FDIC, Federal Reserve, the Comptroller of the Currency, and the Office of Thrift Supervision saying the stress tests start this Wednesday, February 25.

Here's why you care: You care because the tests will indicate who is healthy, who is not and who simply needs more access to cash. That's the reason why banks are getting all the attention today both in the press, and at the White House's Fiscal Responsibility Summit. When the Treasury announced the new economic rescue plan on February 10, the stress test were part of it. The reason for the attention is whether more funds, and thus a larger stake in the banks for tax payers, is needed.

Next Week's News Today (Obama, Bernanke and Volcker Go To Congress Edition)

It's time for Next Week's News Today where we publish our own futures calendar of earnings, reports, hearings and political events which will either drive the news, or deserve more attention. Last week we were correct to say that the foreclosure plan would indeed make last Wednesday nothing short of Big Wednesday. We were also right to point out that the details of the stimulus package would continue to be examined heavily.

What you are seeing in the press is a great deal of coverage devoted to the concept of nationalizing certain banks. What some may find confusing is how banks that have already received direct cash injections from the Treasury in return for stocks are sometimes referred to as "effectively nationalized." The difference is this: Banks receiving Treasury dollars in return for giving the government stocks are not nationalized. BUT, the government can find itself a dominate or controlling shareholder and thus have a great deal of say - thus the reference to effective nationalization. Alternatively, real nationalization is where the government steps in and takes over everything and stock holders are wiped out. It is this later concept that is being discussed. The reason is because when the Treasury announced the new rescue plan for banks it included a "stress test" where banks would have to show they were in trouble, but yet healthy enough to survive if they could just get their hands on some more cash. There are multiple press reports that banks may receive further details on the stress test this coming week. Thus, the discussion as to who is healthy and who is not.

This coming week you'll hear more about those stress tests and the word nationalization. It is an obvious slam dunk to say that President Obama's address to Congress (2/24) will garner headlines. What you should also note is that Fed Chmn. Ben Bernanke is testifying on Capitol Hill regarding the economy on (2/24-5) followed by Paul Volcker, the President's Economic Advisory Board Chmn. (2/26). Both will get grilled on President Obama's remarks because there will have been time to dissect them. Both will get asked about stress tests and nationalization. Their comments could end up impacting the markets as much or more as President Obama's.
We'll definitely be watching, you should too. We do caution that you check back to WhyYouCare.com for updates on scheduling.

Here's why you care about next week's trends in earnings and reports:
Earnings: Some trends this week that will highlight their sectors: 1) a couple auto companies reporting, 2) dollar stores, 3) pizza companies, 4) a bevy of real estate related firms, and 5) a couple media companies.

Reports: Consumer confidence (2/24), mortgage applications and existing home sales (2/25) and unemployment numbers.

Such a big week that you could almost miss it?: T. Boon Pickens in Washington, DC talking up alternative energy (2/24).

As always notable earnings, events, and reports are below:

MONDAY 2/23
Earnings: Campbell Soup, Developers Diversified Realty, General Growth Properties, Healthsouth, Hertz Global, Nordstrom.

Summit: White House Fiscal Responsibility Summit with President Obama, Vice President Biden, Treasury Secy. Geithner, and others.


Meeting: Natl. Governor's Assoc. Meeting (Governors only meeting with President Obama).


TUESDAY 2/24
Earnings: Avis Budget, CB&I, Consumer Portfolio Services, Crown Castle, Daimler AG, Domino's Pizza, DreamWorks Animation, Dycom, Education Realty Trust, Home Depot, Macy's, Northstar Realty, Office Depot, Orbitz, PG&E, Papa John's, Quanta Services, Radian Group, RadioShack, Sempra Energy, Steven Madden, Target, TASER, Thomson Reuters, Vornado Realty Trust, World Wrestling, Wynn Resorts.

Economic Report: Consumer confidence.

President Obama addresses Congress, 9p ET.

Hearing #1: Oversight and Investigations Subcmte. holds a hearing on "A Review of TARP [Troubled Assets Relief Program] Oversight, Accountability and Transparency for U.S. Taxpayers."

Hearing #2: Housing and Community Opportunity Subcmte. holds a hearing on "Loan Modifications: Are Mortgage Servicers Assisting Borrowers with Unaffordable Mortgages?"

Hearing #3: Senate Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs Cmte. hearing on the semiannual report on monetary policy with Fed Chmn. Ben Bernanke.

Discussion: Council on Foreign Relations holds a discussion with BP Capital Management founder T. Boone Pickens on "U.S. energy policy and the future of his $58 million national energy campaign, which calls for increased use of domestic energy products such as wind and natural gas and decreased dependence on foreign oil."


WEDNESDAY 2/25
Earnings: AMBAC, American Equity Investment Life, Caribou Coffee, Del Monte, Discovery, Dollar Tree, Donnelley & Sons, Equity One, Frontier Communications, Hearst-Argyle TV, ICT Group, J.M. Smucker, KBR Inc., Lexington, Martha Stewart, Mortons Restaurant Group, Pennsylvania R.E.I.T., Saks, Zale.

Economic Reports: Mortgage Banker's Assoc. releases mortgage application data, Natl. Assoc. of Realtors releases existing home sales data.

Stress Tests Start: Stress tests conducted by the federal government to measure the health of banks receiving government funds begin under the Capital Assistance Program.


Hearing: House Financial Services Committee (Day 1) on the Semiannual Monetary Policy Report - economic outlook. Witness: Fed Chmn. Ben Bernanke.

Confirmation Hearing: Senate Agriculture, Nutrition and Forestry Committee holds Gary Gensler's confirmation hearing to be chairman and commissioner of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.


THURSDAY 2/26
Earnings: American International, AthenaHealth, Big 5 Sports, Cablevision, Capital Lease Funding, CapitalSource Inc., Checkpoint Systems, Dell, Digital Realy Trust, Duff & Phelps, EMCOR Group, First American, Frontier Oil, Frontline, Gap Inc., General Motors, Gramercy Capital, Grubb & Ellis, Hansen Natural, Hospitality Properties, HRPT Properties, JMP Group, KKR Financial, Kohl's, MGM Mirage, Midas, NASDAQ, Novatel Wireless, Pinnacle, RAIT Investment Trust, Safeway, Sotheby's, US Cellular.

Economic Reports: Initial Unemployment Claims, New Home Sales.

Hearing #1: House Financial Services Committee (Day 2) on the Semiannual Monetary Policy Report - economic outlook.

Hearing #2: Joint Economic Committee on restoring the economy and preventing another crisis. Witness: Paul Volcker - Chmn., President's Economic Advisory Board


FRIDAY 2/27
Earnings: Integra, Magellan Health.

Economic Report: Gross domestic product (GDP) data released.

Understanding What the Foreclosure Plans Means for You and the Banks

The way we see it you likely have two questions: What does the foreclosure plan mean to me right this second? And what does this mean for banks and the stabilization of the economy?

Here's why you care about how it effects you: The LA Times' Maura Reynolds and the Washington Post's Renae Merle both have terrific question and answer pieces as to how the foreclosure plan impacts you. Meanwhile, the New York Times' Tara Siegel Bernard breaks down her q & a by focusing on the refinancing and loan modification components that is helpful in understanding how they work. We'll wager between these three resources you'll get all the answers you need.

Here's why you care about the banks: The Wall Street Journal's Dan Fitzpatrick and David Enrich have a great piece breaking down Wall Street's concern over the foreclosure plan. In a nut shell the angst centers around whether banks will take another huge hit to their already shaky bottom lines because the foreclosure program means modifying loans in a way that causes banks to receive less money. The debate is long term versus short term gain and pain. We suggest you read this to understand how Wall Street and policy makers see the program playing out.

Big Wednesday: Obama's Foreclosure Plan to Avoid Economic Wipeout

As we noted in Next Week's News Today the missing piece of Treasury's economic recovery gameplan was the foreclosure component - and that gets unveiled today.

Here's why you care: The Wall Street Journal's Deborah Solomon posted a preview close to midnight last night laying out what to expect: 1) Those with mortgages underwater will get a chance to refinance, 2) while the Obama administration will use tax payer money to lessen the sting for banks helping with the refinancing, and 3) support for judges to make mortgage modifications in bankruptcy court. As important as what's in the plan, is the fact that the last piece of Treasury's broad stroke gets outlined.

Next Week's News Today (Foreclosure Plan Unveiling and Automaker Deadline Edition)

It's time for Next Week's News Today where we publish our own futures calendar of earnings, reports, hearings and political events which will either drive the news, or deserve more attention. Last week we were correct to say that House and Senate Democrats would rush to pass the stimulus package before Valentine's Day. We were also correct to say that you needed to focus on the House Financial Service Cmte's hearing with the major bank executives. And, perhaps just as importantly we were right to point out to you that your time was best spent understanding the Treasury's revamped rescue plan while the House and Senate hammered out the stimulus details.

Here's why you care: As we said, once the dust settled there would be great pieces outlining what's in the stimulus package. Here's your pay off - some great journalism today from CNN's Jeanne Sahadi breaking down what's in the stimulus bill for the consumer/tax payer. AND, although we stay away from front page pieces, the Washington Post's Tomoeh Murakami Tse, Binyamin Appelbaum and Lori Montgomery have a terrific piece on how tougher executive pay caps for banks receiving government funds not only got into the stimulus bill, but the impact. The one question that Why You Care thinks will get addressed in the coming week on this topic: Given that what Wall Street wants is a clear road map as to the rules the government will play by, if the stimulus bill now makes those caps on executive pay retro-active (unlike the Treasury plan) does that create a dynamic where Wall Street is even more reluctant to trust the government to play by those rules? The short, and obvious answer is yes. But, what's less obvious is how this plays out, so look for stories in the coming weeks on this topic.

On to this week...

This coming week will bring clarity to the missing piece of the Treasury's newly announced and revamped financial rescue plan: Foreclosures. We noted on Friday that the foreclosure plan unveiling would come Wednesday (2/18). That of course means trial balloons between now and then, and the Wall Street Journal's John McKinnon does not disappoint with a great wrap of Senior Obama Adviser David Axelrod's explanations on the Sunday shows hinting at what to expect come Wednesday. Or as we are thinking of it: Big Wednesday. The bonus here is that Federal Reserve Chmn. Ben Bernanke JUST HAPPENS to be speaking at the National Press Club on Wednesday as well. That means journos will have sound from the White House and the Fed to explain the impact of the new foreclosure mitigation plan will have on the financial recovery.

Even though Big Wednesday will get the headlines, Tuesday (2/17) should command your attention if reports are correct that President Obama will sign the stimulus bill into law that day. Additionally, GM (which happens to be reporting earnings this coming week) and Chrysler LLC have until Tuesday to give the federal government their recovery game plan or face the possible loss of the government loan (See CNN article for more explanation). We'll definitely be watching. We do caution that you check back to WhyYouCare.com for updates on scheduling.

Here's why you care about next week's trends in earnings and reports:
Earnings: The auto industry gets yet another look when General Motors reports (2/19). The health of the hotel industry gets an examination with Wynn Resorts (2/17) and MGM Mirage (2/19) both reporting. Other industry metaphors? Computing: Hewlett-Packard (2/18), discount mega stores: Wal-Mart (2/17), and home improvement: Lowe's (2/20).

Reports: Housing starts and mortgage applications (2/18) and unemployment figures (2/19).

Such a big week that you could almost miss it?: Whole Foods (2/18) which has already gotten some media play, may yet get more articles to look at how niche retailers do during tough economic times.

As always notable earnings, events, and reports are below:
MONDAY 2/16 - Holiday


TUESDAY 2/17
Earnings: Chesapeake Energy, Consumer Portfolio Services, Daimler AG, Genuine Parts, GTX, Hudson Highland Group, Martha Stewart, Orleans Homebuilders, Penske Auto, Republic Airways, Wal-Mart, Wynn Resorts.

President Obama expected to sign economic stimulus bill: American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009.

Deadline: GM and Chrysler LLC must show the federal government their turnaround plans, or face the loss of the taxpayer loan (See CNN article).


WEDNESDAY 2/18
Earnings: Advanced Auto, Allied Capital, Avista, Brandywine Realty, CBS Corp, Champion, Comcast, Cowen Group, Denny's, Dollar Thrifty, Dress Barn, Extra Space Storage, Federal Realty Investment Trust, First Advantage, First Industrial Realty Trust, Goodyear Tire, Hewlett-Packard, HNI Corp., Host Hotels, LoJack, McCormick & Schmick's, Nutrisystem, OfficeMax, Owens Corning, Playboy, Whole Foods.

Economic Report: Building Permits (for Jan) and Housing Starts (for Jan); Mortgage Bankers Assoc. release Mortgage Application numbers.

Obama Foreclosure Plan Unveiled.

Speech: Federal Reserve Chmn. Ben Bernanke, National Press Club, 12:30p ET, current economic conditions.

THURSDAY 2/19
Earnings: Asset Acceptance Capital, CapitalSource, Comsys IT Partners, CVS Caremark, Eaton Vance Corp., General Motors, GFI Group, Grubb & Ellis, Harlesyville Group, Hormel Foods, Hospitality Prop, Intuit, MGM Mirage, Oriental Financial Group, RadioShack, Regal Entertainment, Reliance Steel, RiskMetrics Group, Sprint Nextel, WebMD Health.

Economic Reports: Initial Unemployment claims and Producer Price Index (measures whole sale good prices).


FRIDAY 2/20
Earnings: JC Penney, Lowe's, TRW Automotive, Weingarten Realty.
Economic Reports: Consumer Price Index (measures goods' prices for consumers).

The Missing Piece? Foreclosure Plan Unveils 2/18

The Washington Post's Renae Merle posted a story late this afternoon that the Obama administration will unveil the foreclosure mitigation plan this coming Wednesday (2/18).

Here's why you care: Merle reports that three banks have already put a moratorium on foreclosures to wait and see what's in the plan: Bank of America, Citi and JP Morgan Chase. Two take aways: 1) the race is on to get details before Wednesday and 2) this means that arguably the biggest missing piece of Treasury's new recovery game plan announced this week will have a form.

Treasury's Financial Rescue Plan's Basics Explained

So Treasury's new financial rescue plan got unveiled (as we said it would in Next Week's News Today). There are many great pieces out there today breaking it down for various audiences. For instance the New York Times' graphics associated with their article is just great. However, if you need something to give you a very easy to digest version of WHAT IS IN IT then USA Today's Pallavi Gogoi, Sue Kirchhoff, Barbara Hagenbaugh and Kathy Chu have the story for you. Not only do they have a thumbnail graphic that will help you get your arms around it but their copy is a quick and easy read for a complicated plan.

Here's why you care: We went with USA Today because there is simply so much out there, and although much of the coverage is good it is easy to get lost in the weeds. The one thing we know that before you can move on to analyzing why stocks dipped as Secretary Geithner unveiled the plan to Congress, you need to first understand the plan. USA Today's story will get that job done for you today, and not waste your time.

Time to Focus on the Financial Rescue Revamp

Lots of news out there today. We think that if you are pressed, just wait for the stimulus package to get through the House/Senate conference before drilling down on what is/is not in it. Once the dust settles you can examine the details (and that will be soon). Instead, today we think it is worth your while to look at the revamped bank rescue plan that we noted in Next Week's News Today would be unveiled today.

Here's why you care: While the stimulus package will help spending, the bank rescue plan will help lending. Sort of right hand and left hand. That's why we suggest you read the Wall Street Journal's Deborah Solomon and Damian Paletta today. They've got a good primer on where Treasury Secretary Geithner is going with his new plan. Headlines: 1) There's going to be a private-public effort for a bank to help other banks to unload assets which are causing problems (sometimes referred to as toxic assets - but we think that's not exactly the appropriate term, none the less this structure helps banks get rid of investments that are hurting their bottom line), 2) Banks will also get more money from government if needed but they have to subject themselves to a "stress-test" which means the government gets to look at the books and figure out what each bank's health is which requests money (don't discount this - very important). Which is to say Treasury doesn't want to pump money into banks that are going to fail, and 3) the Federal Reserve will help further on the consumer lending front. Solomon/Paletta have got a great breakdown. And we expect you'll see more after today's hearings.

Next Week's News Today (Stimulus Package & New Financial Rescue Plan Valentine's Edition)

It's time for Next Week's News Today where we publish our own futures calendar of earnings, reports, hearings and political events which will either drive the news, or deserve more attention. Last week we were correct to point that the spotlight would rightly be on the stimulus package, and that Congressional hearings would help shed a light on different ideas as to how to re-vamp/reshape the financial rescue package.

This coming week will start off with a big push on the stimulus package in the Senate. Remember, Democrats wanted to deliver the stimulus package to President Obama's desk by Friday (2/13). Even if the Senate votes on it by Tuesday (2/10) it will still have to be reconciled with the House version before being signed into law. Thus, Friday is a tough deadline. Still, this will be where the action is in the first part of the week including a presidential news conference Monday (2/9) night in primetime (8p ET).

Next it is on to the financial rescue package. That is to say the retooled sequel to TARP (the Trouble Asset Relief Program). We have been highlighting excellent coverage on the trail balloons sent from all interested parties on what the rescue might look like (see in particular our explanation of a "bad bank"). However, while it looked like the Treasury would unveil the plan on Monday, it has now been apparently moved to Tuesday. One idea you might wonder about is the notion of the Treasury using a "guarantee" for bank assets that are underwater. What this means simply is like how if a mom guarantees to the bank the payments on her son's car loan. If the son doesn't pay the mom will. Here if the bank can't pay, the Treasury will. We're not saying that's definitely the plan, but we've noted enough trial balloons, that we want you to be armed with an explanation should that be part of the game plan come Tuesday.

THEN, if that were not enough, the House Financial Services Cmte on Wednesday (2/11) will have CEOs from all the big banks taking questions. We'll definitely be watching. We do caution that you check back to WhyYouCare.com for updates on scheduling.

Here's why you care about next week's trends in earnings and reports:
Earnings: There are a number of real estate companies reporting this week (noted below) which will be interesting. There are also some names like Molson Coors Brewing (2/10) and Coca-Cola (2/12) which will be interesting to watch in tough economic times.

Reports: Mortgage applications (2/11) and unemployment and retail sales (2/12).

Such a big week that you could almost miss it?: Fed Chmn. Ben Bernanke testifying before the House Financial Services Cmte., Tuesday (2/10).

As always notable earnings, events, and reports are below:

MONDAY 2/9
Earnings: Adminstaff Inc., Advisory Board, Alexandria Real Estate, American Financial, AXIS Capital, Beazer Homes, Camden Property, CNA Financial, Cousins Property, Genworth Financial, Hasbro, Hewitt Assoc., Innophos Holdings, Lincoln National, Lions Gate Entertainment, Lorillard, New Frontier Media, Orleans Homebuilders, Parkway Properties, Principal Financial Group, ProLogis, Time Warner Telecom, UDR Inc., Vodafone, Whirlpool.

Economic Reports: Federal Reserve releases weekly interest rate data.

Primetime Presidential News Conference: 8p ET, President Obama.


TUESDAY 2/10
Earnings: Applied Materials, Barrett Business, Bob Evans, CB Richard Ellis, Choice Hotels, Consumer Portfolio Services, DIRECTV, Elan, Fidelity National Information Services, General Cable, HCP Inc., Intercontinental Exchange, Learning Tree, Macrovision, MDC Holdings, Molson Coors Brewing, Pepsi Bottling, Qwest, Unisys, United Micro.

Treasury Outlines Bank Plan: (This was to be Monday (2/9) but reported to move to this day), Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner outlines new financial rescue plan.

Senate Floor: Projected vote on stimulus package in the Senate (it would then have to be reconciled with the House bill before being signed into law).

Senate Banking Cmte. Hearing: 10a ET, Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner testimony: Financial Rescue Program: A New Plan for the TARP.

House Financial Services Cmte. Hearing: 1p ET, "An Examination of the Extraordinary Efforts by the Federal Reserve Bank to Provide Liquidity in the Current Financial Crisis." Witness: Federal Reserve Chmn. Ben Bernanke.

Discussion: 10a ET, Economic Club of Washington, tech's role in economic growth Intel CEO Paul Otellini.


WEDNESDAY 2/11
Earnings: Alcon, BioMed Realty, Cardtronics, Chipotle Mexican Grill, Coca-Cola Enterprises, CompuCredit, Core Labs, CPI International, Delphi Financial, Drew Industries Inc., EastGroup, Equinix, Forrester Research, General Growth Properties, GLG Partners, InfoSpace, Jones Apparel, Las Vegas Sands, Level 3, Macerich, Marsh McLennan, Mercer International, PF Chang's, Realty Income, Renaissancere Holdings, Reynolds American, Sinclair Broadcast, SkyWest, Thomas Weisel, Wright Express

Economic Report: Mortgage Bankers Association release mortgage application data.

Senate Budget Cmte. Hearing: 10a ET, Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner testimony on Crises in Financial and Housing Markets

House Financial Services Cmte. Hearing: 10a ET, "TARP Accountability: Use of Federal Assistance by the First TARP Recipients." Witnesses: Ken Lewis - CEO, Bank of America; Jamie Dimon - CEO, JPMorgan Chase; Vikram Pandit - CEO, Citigroup; Ronald E. Logue - CEO, State Street; Robert P.Kelly - CEO, Bank of New York; John Stumpf - CEO, Wells Fargo; John Mack - CEO, Morgan Stanley; Lloyd Blankfein - CEO, Goldman Sachs

Discussion: 10:45a ET, U.S. Chamber of Commerce releases "Examining the Efficiency and Effectiveness of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission" report.


THURSDAY 2/12
Earnings: Aetna, Avis Budget, California Pizza Kitchen, Cambrex, Caribou Coffee, Cheesecake Factory, China Housing & Land, Coca-Cola, Geo Group, Grubb & Ellis, Heartland Payment Systems, HRPT Properties, Inland Real Estate, Journal Communications, Keefe Bruyette & Woods, Mack-Cali Realty, Marriott, Martin Marietta, MFA Mortgage, Olympic Steel, Oriental Financial Group, Peet's Coffee, Portfolio Recovery Assocs., QC Holdings, RadioShack, RealNetworks, Regal Entertainment, Stamps.com, TASER, Ultralife, Waste Management, Wynn Resorts

Economic Reports: Initial Unemployment Claims, Mortgage Rates, Retail Sales.

Senate Banking, Housing and Urbans Affairs Cmte. Hearing: 10a ET, Credit cards and consumer protection.


FRIDAY 2/13
Earnings: Abercrombie, Allete, Brookfield Asset Management, Cameco, Enbridge, PepsiCo, Standard Pacific, Wyndham Worldwide.


SATURDAY 2/14G-7 News Conference: Rome, Italy (note - it IS Valentine's day) - Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner

Can the U.S. Avoid Japan's Lost Decade?

The U.S. financial rescue needs to be built for speed according to new Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner, so reports the Wall Street Journal's Michael Phillips in an online article tonight that we'll bet is in Wednesday's paper. You need to read this and understand it.

Here's why you care: The Japanese call it the "Lost Decade." What they're talking about is the 10 plus years following Japan's real estate, and subsequent stock market, bubble bursting. As we noted in yesterday's posting the news that Secretary Geithner plans to unveil the financial rescue game plan next week means trial balloons between now and then. Tonight's Phillips article looks like Treasury is framing one of the key issues: the length of the recovery. For those who make it their business to track markets Japan's Lost Decade is a real fear. Phillips' article does a good job of explaining what it all means, so we don't have to. Go read it and be ahead of the curve.

Wall Street Journal: Geithner Unveils Econ Rescue Plan Next Week

The Wall Street Journal's Deborah Solomon has got the must read article online right now because it will change the tempo of the week.

Here's why you care: Wall Street, K Street, and Capitol Hill have been waiting for the new administration to lay out the new game plan for recovery. It appears as though it will happen next week. As we pointed out in our futures calendar for this week - Next Week's News Today - the big focus for this week would be on the stimulus package in the Senate.

But, Ms. Solomon's article is something of a game changer - as some like to say in DC these days - because it means that the rest of the week will be equally about stimulus trial balloons as it will solutions to getting Wall Street lending again. What might it look like? Well, see our posting on understanding good bank vs. bad bank because that was a trial balloon a few weeks ago, and is still getting ink in the press. (Quick breakdown: The bad bank is essentially a way for banks to dump those items that are dragging down their finances to a degree that they can't lend. TARP originally was set up to buy those items (ie -assets) but when October '08 saw the market drop the Treasury opted to use the money as a direct cash injection into the banks - thus where we are now. We do encourage you to take a moment to read our prior posting because this balloon will continue to be floated, and variations.)

Next Week's News Today (Stimulus Package and Shadow of Reagan's Tax Cut Edition)

So, if it's Thursday (yes, it is Sunday, we're late), then it's time for Next Week's News Today where we publish our own futures calendar of earnings, reports, hearings and political events which will either drive the news, or deserve more attention. Last week we were correct to point that our highlighted economic reports would get a lot of press play. We were also right to point out that the Fed meeting would also push coverage, not because of a rate change but because they are staying the course and searching for other options. It was easy to point out that the stimulus package and the new Treasury Secretary's confirmation would garner headlines as well as the hive of activity on Capitol Hill given the House passage of the stimulus package.

This coming week Congress will be the focus because it is the Senate's turn to take a crack at the stimulus bill (2/2). Look for coverage of House Financial Services Cmte.'s Tuesday hearing on bank lending (2/3), and the Senate Banking Cmte.'s TARP hearing (2/5). All of which will be venues for windows into how legislation will play out - and what you should pick up on when you log on or pick up a paper. Also - if President Reagan were still alive, he'd celebrate his birthday on February 6th, that means look for politicians and journalists to use this date as a way to examine tax cuts.

Of additional note this week is the confirmation hearing for CIA Director nominee Leon Panetta (2/5), and while that isn't an economic story it will certainly get coverage. Likewise for Attorney General nominee Eric Holder's confirmation vote in the Senate (2/2). We do caution that you check back to WhyYouCare.com for updates on scheduling.

Here's why you care about next week's trends in earnings and reports:

Earnings: A number of banks and real estate companies are listed below that will likely get attention. As well as a few media/content companies like Disney and Time Warner.

Interesting Earning Story: Moody's (2/5) in the context of continual economic angst.

Perfect news peg for journalists: Fmr. President Ronald Reagan's birthday (2/6) in the context of tax cuts and stimulating the economy.

Reports: Home/Car/Truck sales on 2/3, mortgage applications 2/4, and different unemployment stats on 2/5 and 2/6 will all get play in the business pages.

As always notable earnings, events, and reports are below:

MONDAY 2/2
Earnings: AFLAC, BE Aerospace, First State Banc, Mattel, Orleans Homebuilders, Rent-A-Center, SanDisk, Sysco

Economic Reports: Personal Spending (for Dec.); Personal Income (for December); Construction Spending (for Dec.)

News Conf.: Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell talks about the economic stimulus package.

Hearing: Senate Republican Policy Committee's hearing "solutions to fix the current economic crisis."

Senate Floor: Takes up the economic stimulus package, and will likely vote on Eric Holder's nomination to be Attorney General.


TUESDAY 2/3
Earnings: ACE Limited, Actel, Archer-Daniels, Avon Products, BP, BRE Properties, Dow Chemical, Emerson, Health Net, Jones Lang LaSalle, KC Southern, Louisiana-Pacific, Magellan Midstream, Marathon Oil, Martin Marietta, Merck, MetLife, Motorola, National Retail Properties, NetLogic, Northrop Grumman, Pepsi Bottling, PNC Bank, Schering-Plough, Tupperware, Tyco, UPS, Walt Disney, YUM! Brands

Economic Reports: Pending Homes Sales (for Dec. from Natl. Association of Realtors); Car/Truck Sales (for Jan.).

News Conf.: House Financial Services Cmte. Chmn. Barney Frank on this year's agenda/priorities.

Hearing #1: House Agriculture Cmte. on derivatives legislation.

Hearing #2: House Financial Services Cmte. on "Promoting Bank Liquidity and Lending Through Deposit Insurance, Hope for Homeowners, and other Enhancements."


WEDNESDAY 2/4
Earnings: Alcatel-Lucent, Allergan, Allied Healthcare, American Capital Agency, Annaly Mortgage, Arch Chemicals, AvalonBay, Brinks, BWAY Holding, CBL & Assoc, Cisco, Clorox, Dice Holdings, Drugstore.com, Equifax, Equity Residential, Fidelity National, GLG Partners, Goodrich, ITT Industries, Kraft Foods, Las Vegas Sands, Lazard, Novellus, PepsiAmericas, Phillip Morris Inernational, Polo Ralph Lauren, Prudential, Pulte Homes, Regency Centers, Republic Airways, Reynolds American, Sara Lee, Silicon Labs, Snap-On, Spherion, Sunoco, Time Warner, Time Warner Cable, Visa, Wolverine

Economic Report: Mortgage Bankers Association's data on mortgage applications.

Hearing: Capital Markets, Insurance and Government Sponsored Enterprises Subcmte. of the House Financial Services Cmte. on Bernard Madoff and federal regulatory agencies.


THURSDAY 2/5
Earnings: Bankrate, Belo, Brookfield Properties, Burger King, CIGNA, Cincinnati Financial, CONMED, Diamond Management, Earthlink, Echelon, Elizabeth Arden, Estee Lauder, Gartner, Genworth Financial, Hartford Financial, Healthways, Insight Enterprises, Keef Bruyette & Woods, Kellogg, Kimco Realty, MasterCard, McClatchy, Micros Systems, Moody's, New Frontier Media, Omega Health, Penson Worldwide, Prestige Brands, QC Holdings, Sonoco Products, Tenneco, Warner Music Group, Western Union

Economic Reports: Initial Unemployment Claims (for 1/31).

Hearing: Senate Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs Cmte. on oversight of the Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP).

Confirmation Hearing: Senate Select Intelligence Cmte. on Leon Panetta's CIA Director nomination.


FRIDAY 2/6
Economic Reports: Unemployment Rate (for Jan.)
Interesting item: February 6 is former President Ronald Reagan's birthday, interesting news peg for journalists wishing to examine the use of tax cuts to stimulate the economy.

Test post

This is only a test as we work on the fantastic brand new layout of the blog. Thanks!

Average 401(k) Loss in 2008? 27%

The Washington Post's Nancy Trejos has the story you'll want today. It is a Fidelity Investment study showing the average loss for a worker's 401(k) last year.

Here's why you care: We've continually said that the stories buried in the business pages ultimately impact your bottom line. Talk to any business reporter for a major news organization about housing, securities, credit default swaps, regulation, etc. and time and again they'll tell you they did that story a year ago, two years ago, three years ago... You get the picture. That's why we highlight a business story each day that we think you may have missed in the business pages. Today, we thought we'd use Ms. Trejos' reporting to make the case as to why you care.

When Banks Will Lend

We think you saw the layoff headlines and focused on those stories. Which is rational and understandable. The story we think you should have also read because it is instructive as to how banks think is the Pfizer deal.

Here's why you care: Don't think about it in terms of a drug company story. Think about this in terms of what does it take to get banks to lend, and what does it look like when they do? That's the key to jumpstarting the economy. The Pfizer deal gives you that chance. And it turns out the Wall Street Journal's Matthew Karnitschnig and Heidi Moore took exactly that approach. The take away here is that 1) banks will lend, but 2) they are going to get extra assurances in the form of lending terms which companies are going to have be thinking about NOW in order to stay afloat and grow this year and next. Wall Street is paying attention to this article, and understanding will put you ahead of the curve.

Understanding the "Nationalization" Debate Over Banks

We think you woke up on Monday, and saw David Sanger's front page New York Times article about the trial balloons being launched over the idea of nationalizing some failing banks. Then we saw CNN.com post Nobel Prize winning economist Joseph Stiglitz's piece breaking down how we got from October to now, and basically advocating for the nationalization of failing banks.


Here's why you care: When you hear "nationalization" you think, ah, the government takes something over. That's true, but what you need to know, and can be less obvious is a defacto nationalization if you will. In other words, the U.S. government has been injecting cash into banks in return for stock. At a certain point the U.S. government, has in some cases already, and will in other cases wind up as the majority share holder. I.E. - majority shareholder gets a lot of pull, and you could sort of call that nationalization if you want. We just want you to be able to understand that there are two flavors here.

Lastly, keep in mind as this debate moves forward the other options for the U.S. government are as follows: 1) Inject more cash into banks, and get more stock in return (see above); 2) Take over failing banks (nationalization); 3) Create a "bad bank," where financial institutions can dump troubled assets (click here for our explanation last week); and 4) revive the original TARP plan - go buy troubled assets from banks through auctions.

Keep this in mind as you see this debate get more play in the weeks to come.